Israel returns to the polls: a scenario analysis

Israel is going back to the polls. After little more than a year, the heterogeneous coalition formed to prevent Netanyahu's return shatters and political uncertainty returns.

  Articoli (Articles)
  Michele Magistretti
  30 June 2022
  3 minutes, 30 seconds

This contribution is also available at the following link: https://www.giornalediplomatico.it/israele-torna-alle-urne-quali-prospettive.htm

After little more than a year, Israel heads towards a new election round, the fifth in less than four years. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, the two main leaders of the governmental team, have run out of cards to hold together a coalition that has been shaky for months. The country will therefore go back to the polls between October and November, and the king maker of Israeli politics for the past decade, Benjamin Netanyahu, could make his comeback.

Let us therefore see how the various actors in Israeli politics are reacting to this new electoral confrontation.

The eternal return of the same: between political chaos and new elections

After yet another defection, the government found itself in the minority and no longer able to be supported by a solid parliamentary majority. For months now, the hiatus between the right-wing and left-wing members was becoming unbridgeable. In particular, it is PM Bennett's party, Yamina, that is suffering from remaining in government.

The leader of Judaism United in Torah, Moshe Gafni, has been active in trying to find an alternative coalition and attempt to bring King Bibi back to power. In addition, he has proposed lowering the threshold from around 3% to 2%, his party is among those in danger of being left out of the next parliament, and he himself would prefer to be able to break away with his own faction to have more political weight. Some parties in the same precarious electoral situation have come out in favour. On the contrary, some of the larger parties, the liberal centrist party of Foreign Minister Yair Lapid in particular, emphasised that they were against the proposal, which could further 'balkanise' parliament. Small parties would see their bargaining power within government coalitions increase.

With the dissolution of parliament, one begins to speculate what some of the future electoral and governmental alchemies might be, amidst opposing vetoes and even tactical winks. Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the nationalist and anti-religious Yisrael Beytenu party, has categorically ruled out entering any coalition government with the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Judaism in the Torah, and with the extreme right-wing Religious Zionism Party. Lieberman, on the other hand, confirmed his support for a coalition ranging from the progressives of Meretz to the right wing of Bennett. Current Defence Minister Gantz and leader of the Blue and White centrist party claims that his main goal will be to prevent Netanyahu from returning to the country's government. More ambiguous is the position of Bennett and his party, some members of which remain possibilistic about a collaboration with Likud.

There could be some surprises regarding possible mergers of electoral signs in the run-up to the return to the polls. The right-wing Yamina party and the centre-right New Hope party could create a single list to try to pass the threshold. The two parties share many positions on the political agenda, in particular the desire for judicial reform. However, unlike Bennett and other prominent Yamina figures, the leader of New Hope, Gideon Sa'ar, does not want to compromise with Netanyahu at all. For this reason, a possible union with Gantz's centrist party cannot be ruled out, which could thus become a new reference for the right-wing electorate disillusioned with Netanyahu. In this way, the Minister of Justice could also obtain a large parliamentary group capable of weighing in the negotiations for the future government both in an anti-Likud function and against his ally Yair Lapid. On the left, too, there are some prospects for a merger between the progressive Meretz party and Labour, a hypothesis advocated in particular by the progressive component. 

Translated by Margherita Folci

Sources consulted for the present article:

https://www.ispionline.it/it/p... 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/... 

https://www.jpost.com/israel-e...

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L'Autore

Michele Magistretti

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#israele #Israel #government #Medio oriente #middle east