Framing the World, number XX

The international order between peace and conflicts

Framing The World, number XX

After two weeks of waiting, Framing the World is back with its twentieth edition!
In recent days, numerous significant events have marked international relations and, as always, we at Mondo Internazionale will try to provide you with an overview of these events in a simple and straightforward way. Starting from the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to the Ethiopian Prime Minister, the reopening of trade negotiations between the USA and China, the violence in sub-Saharan Africa, the crisis in Ecuador and the negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang, we arrive at the nearby European Union: note the difficult evolution of Brexit and the rejection of the French candidate Goulard to the Commission. While there is a thaw between Ukraine and Russia, the situation is more and more heated in Syria, with the Turkish offensive against the Kurds in the north-east and the condemnations by the international community, even in the face of the risk of a new humanitarian crisis . With regard to terrorism, we should mention the reawakening of ISIS in Syria, with the potential return of foreign fighters to Europe, and the anti-Semitic attack in Germany.

This and much more in the new edition of Framing the World!


Iran approves a revolutionary law on citizenship. According to the recently approved law on citizenship, Iran will finally grant citizenship to the children born to an Iranian mother and a foreign father. This law allows tens of thousands of children to access to healthcare and social services, from which they will previously excluded. Furthermore, it also represents a step forward for the whole Middle East, as many countries still does not allow mothers to pass on citizenship to their children if the fathers are foreigners.

Migrants, Italy adopts the "repatriation decrees".
In the past days, the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Justice have concluded the so-called ‘repatriation decree’. According to such decree, Italy will reject all those requests issued by migrants coming from ‘safe countries’, unless the applicant himself can prove that his reparation would have serious consequences on his health or life. In this way, procedures that before lasted for years will now last just few months. Furthermore, thanks to the decree, also the countries participating to the repatriation program increased, to the point that 13 more States have joined the program (Albania, Algeria, Bosnia, Cape Verde, Ghana, Kosovo, Macedonia, Morocco, Montenegro, Senegal, Serbia, Tunisia and Ukraine).

Nobel Peace Prize, the award goes to the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali.
The Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, the main author of the peace agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia that led to the end of a twenty-year conflict. During his mandate as Ethiopian Prime Minister, Ahmed Ali has also implemented several pro-human rights reforms, such as the releasing of numerous political prisoners, the legalization of opposition groups, the abolition of media censorship and the promotion of women’s rights.

Syria, a new humanitarian emergency has erupted in the country.
The Turkish attacks in Syria against the Kurdish population is causing a new humanitarian emergency in a country that was already plagued by war and by ISIS terrorist attacks. Aided by the jihadist group of Al Qaeda, Turkey is now indiscriminately bombarding the main border cities, killing civilians and destroying the few primary services still existing. Numerous States as well as international organizations are currently denouncing the Turkish offensive. Meanwhile, ISIS is continuing to hit the Syrian territory: on 11 October, the secretary of Syria's Future party and human rights activist, Havrin Khalaf, was killed in a car bomb explosion.

The European Court of Human Rights has rejected the referral of the Viola c. Italy case to the Grand Chamber.
On October 8, the European Court of Human Rights rejected the Italian Government's request to refer the Viola case to the Grand Chamber. This decision confirm the sentence issued by the Court on June 13, which declared the incompatibility of life sentence without parole – set forth by Article 4 bis of the Italian Penitentiary Law – with Article 3 of the Convention. In its prior sentence, the Court had in fact criticized the Italian current legislation, where the lack of collaboration is equated with a presumption of danger for the society of the offender. As a result, Italy will have to change its legislation on the matter.
Marta Stroppa


Libra, debut is at risk. It seems quite unlikely that Facebook's digital currency will see the light. A few months after the launch, the companies behind the project are backing off one after the other: Paypal left first, Visa, Mastercard and Stripe followed suit, and no one has paid the participation fee ($10 million) yet. The concerns of the United States, the EU and central banks have pushed for the withdrawal. Governments are worried by a possible loss of sovereignty, while financial institutions have expressed serious doubts about compliance with anti-money laundering, anti-terrorism and anti-evasion regulations. The founders' assembly is scheduled today (October 14th) in Geneva to decide the fate of the currency.

US-China, still negotiating.
The 13th negotiations round between the United States and China took place on Friday 11th. The meeting seems to have paid off: the US will suspend the new tariffs scheduled for October 15, while China will increase its purchases of agricultural products from $10 to 40/50 billion. The agreement will be defined in the next three weeks and for the moment will not address the issue of intellectual property protection, the real concern of the Administration. The stock exchanges responded positively, consolidating a recovery that this summer seemed unlikely: Wall Street is up 18% from January and more significantly at +6.5% from July 2018, when the first duties on Chinese goods were imposed.

US and the EU, good news.
It took only a few days to overturn a pessimistic trend that had prevailed at the beginning of the month following the disappointing manufacturing data on both sides of the Atlantic. The US economy added 136,000 new jobs, lowering unemployment to 3.5% ( lowest since 1969), while salaries increased by 2.9% and inflation remained low. This keeps consumption, which represent more than 2/3 of the American economy, at high levels. Europe scores also better than expected. Britain grew in July and will not be in recession in the third quarter and the german automotive sector rebounded, with Daimler increasing sales by 25% at home and by 13% in the Chinese market. The wait is now for industrial and GDP figures, coming out respectively today and tomorrow.

Oil, what's going on?
Crude oil seems to have grown insensitive to geopolitical tensions. At the beginning of the year, the Brent fluctuated just above $80, but the slowdown in global growth, the US-China trade tensions and the increase in American oil production led to a new balance between supply and demand, with relatively low prices. Starting in September, growing tensions in the Middle East have not led to long-term price increases. Neither the Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia, which took 5% of world production out of the market, nor the attack on Friday 11 to an Iranian oil tanker and the Turkish invasion of Syria, influenced the long-term trend. Analysts believe that the drop in global demand trumps the geopolitical risk.

Banks, bad winds are blowing.
Banks are suffering globally and after Deutsche Bank fired 18,000 people in August, another major bank, HSBC, announced 10,000 layoffs, or 5% of its workforce. The situation is negative especially in Europe, where the cuts, which will reach 25% of the personnel, will try to offset two consecutive years of losses, while in Asia, a region with strong growth, recruitment will continue. The banking sector is suffering a decade of low interest rates, which precipitated profits from loans, a situation further worsened by the negative rates applied by central banks, which signify losses on compulsory reserves.

China, the NBA is no longer welcome.
A tweet was enough to ruin a business relationship worth $5 billion a year and over 490 million viewers. When the general manager of the Houston Rockets, the most beloved team in China, tweeted in support of Hong Kong, the Chinese government and dozens of Chinese NBA partner companies complained "subversive intentions that endanger social stability". As a result, the transmission of all matches was blocked and all references, including posters, to the pre-season games to be played in China disappeared overnight. The NBA, after initially criticizing the tweet, expressed its support for freedom of expression eliciting unanimous support by the Congress.

Leonardo Aldeghi


Chad, new postponement of the elections. The composition of the National Assembly has not changed since 2011, yet this has not prevented the Independent Electoral Commission (Céni) from establishing a new delay in the electoral appointment: at best it will be held in the first quarter of 2020. Only two weeks ago the Head of State, Idriss Deby Itno, had asked the same Commission to organize the elections for the end of the year, but this was not considered possible. The threat of Boko Haram and the financial difficulties were named to justify this delay. The country is in a very difficult condition, so that in the eastern regions a state of urgency has been announced.

Ethiopia, Nobel Peace Prize to Abij Ahmed.
The assignment committee in Oslo took the decision on Friday 11 October, confirming the victory of this award by the Ethiopian Prime Minister, the frontmen of the reconciliation with Eritrea, the country with which he restarted diplomatic relations in July last year.

Mali, 38 soldiers killed.
The figures refer to the attack suffered by the Malian army between Monday and Tuesday, September 30 and October 1, which led to the death of nearly four dozen of men belonging to the regular forces. There is talk of a direct attack on the military camps of Boulkessy and Mondoro, in the central region of Mali near the Burkinabé border. They were attacked by jihadists who, in demonstration of their strength, or of their opponents’ unpreparedness, were successful in conquering the first of the two camps. Only with the intervention of the French force Barkhane it was possible to regain it the next day.

The United States shows all its dissatisfaction.
Perhaps because of real interest, perhaps to get rid of some pebbles from the shoe against the French, the US speech to the General Assembly has underlined the lack of results in the country. This also to stress the unsuccessful involvement of the UN force MINUSMA, for whose support France is spending so much diplomatic energy. Currently as many as 25,000 men employed by three different forces, G5 Sahel, Barkhane, MINUSMA, are operating in the country for the fight against terrorism and post-civil war stabilization.

Democratic Republic of Congo.
The DRC returns to be talked about, and once again for dire reasons. Three soldiers lost their lives during an attack by the Bakata Katanga militia in the north east of the city of Lubumbashi. The regular forces responded to the fire causing the death of two militiamen. They are part of one of the many groups fighting for the achievement of independence in the southern region of Katanga, extremely rich in minerals and diamonds.

Rwanda, the FDLR returns to the northern border.
In the night between 4 and 5 October, an attack on the Ugandan and Congolese borders led to the death of 14 people. After several hours the news was circulated that those responsible for the attack belong to the Hutu rebel group that for years has lurked beyond the Rwandan border, between Kivu and the southern areas of the Western District of Uganda.
Marcello Alberizzi

Mexico, two thousand migrants to the United States.
On 12 October, a new caravan left Tapachula, the largest Mexican city on the border with Central American countries. The migrants come mainly from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras but also from Cuba, Haiti and from numerous African countries. No respite from these phenomena is expected, at least for now. Crises are increasingly present in almost all the countries of Central and South America. Migrants, coming from Africa, do not just reach Europe and in greater numbers move within their own continent, but they even cross the Atlantic to reach Brazil where they begin the long journey to the United States of America.

United States of America, two thousand soldiers in Saudi Arabia.
President Trump has repeatedly declared the total withdrawal of US soldiers in the Middle East, but the Department of Defense has just announced the deployment of two thousand soldiers in Saudi Arabia, along with new anti-missile systems and new combat aircraft to face the growing aggressiveness of the Iran in the region. In the meantime it has emerged that for the Russiagate the Italian intelligence services have carried out the investigations on behalf of the United States, but it has not yet been made clear.
Michele Pavan

Argentina: Fernández launches a Plan against hunger.
Alberto Fernández, one of the major presidential candidates, presented a Plan against hunger that would be implemented in the event of his electoral victory. This strategy was designed after the publication of the latest Indec poverty data. In particular, the statistics pointed out that poverty rose to 35.4% at the end of June (ie, 15.9 million people), with a peak of 52.6% among children under 15. Fernández, leader of the Peronist party, also attacked outgoing president Macri, stating that Argentina, with its level of development, cannot but assist its increasingly poorer population.

Environmental disaster in Brazil.
An oil slick is affecting Brazil's many beaches in the northeast of the country. Currently there are 132 coastal areas damaged by oil. President Bolsonaro, ordered the Navy to launch an investigation into the incident. At the same time, the marine fauna protection institutes have suspended the release of sea turtles. According to the Brazilian Environment Institute, oil has reached the Bahia region, which is the main destination for foreign tourists. Petrobras, analyzing the samples from the beaches, stated that the crude should come from Venezuelan tankers.

Cuba, Russia will help the country to receive oil.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev said he would help Cuba receive oil and its derivatives to alleviate the damage caused by restrictions imposed by the United States. Meanwhile, the Pope appoints the new nuncio to Cuba: Monsignor Giampiero Gloder. This happens precisely when, after 50 years, the President of the Republic of Cuba Diaz-Canel is elected and as his Deputy Salvador Valdés. The beginning of a new political era in the country is announced.

Ecuador, the beginning of a long protest.
After 13 days of protests and the declaration of a state of emergency by the Government with the intervention of the army in the streets, on Saturday 12 October in the country there is also a curfew. Restrictive measures that are used in exceptional cases of danger to safety. The clashes developed in the main cities of the country, Quito and Guayaquil. The denunciation of the people, thanks also to the protest of the pots, against a regime defined dictatorial and fascist, considered protagonist of abuses and violence. At the base of the protests is the package of austerity measures that the President of Ecuador Lenin Moreno made himself immediately available to modify. Meanwhile, the President, live on TV, lashed out at opponents, declaring that the former Ecuadorian President and the Venezuelan President in complicity with narcoterrorism, bandits and violent citizens, have provoked violence. The former Ecuadorian President cannot be excluded from the current situation because, during his presidency that lasted until 2017, he aligned the country with the Bolivarian axis, even providing shelter, in the Ecuadorian embassy in London, to Julian Assange. The country's situation is not far from the possibility of leading to a situation like Venezuela, much depends on how the government manages to manage the protests peacefully and from the influences of third countries.
Michele Pavan e Mario Ghioldi


China, between Russia and Iraqi Kurdistan. Vladimir Putin's Russia confirmed during the Valdai Club International Conference in Sochi, Thursday 3 October, that they are helping China in the construction of an inter-continental interception missile system. Only Russia and the USA have such a system today. Xi Jinping went to Nepal becoming the first high-ranking CPC official to make a state visit to the country. On the table, possible trade agreements and an extradition treaty. On 29 September, the Chinese consul in Iraq and the Kurdish Masrour met to begin cooperation in Iraqi Kurdistan. China prohibits former Tibetan government employees from taking part in religious activities. On October 7, Carrie Lam opens up a possibility for the intervention of the central government.

Japan, dialogue with South Korea continues. 
Defense Minister, Taro Kono, expressed his willingness to meet his South Korean counterpart, beside a meeting in Thailand in November (ADMM Plus). On Wednesday 2 October, Abe Shinzo hopes that Xi Jinping will be able to visit Japan by spring. Japan and South Korea then met at the WTO in Geneva on Friday to discuss their dispute. The G20 countries met in Tokyo on Tuesday 2 October for four days of joint work. Theme? Plastic.

South Korea, in search for weapons. 
South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo asked Japan for information about a North Korean missile launch. This happened a little time from the expiry date of the GSOMIA, in november. The country then confirmed the second step in acquiring a further 20 F 35. In addition to this, Thursday 10 October, the country supported its willingness to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. This after what appears to have been a missile test launched by a North Korean submarine.

North Korea, failure of the negotiations.
 The Russian ambassador to the country, Matsegora, said that in 2020 Vladimir Putin will visit the country. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu will meet North Korean defense minister No Kwang Chol. After the conclusion of the negotiations on disarmament held in Stockholm between DPRK and the USA. The North Korean negotiator said that "(the negotiations have) not fulfilled our expectations and broke down. I am very displeased about it. " accusing the Americans. This Thursday, following the failure of the negotiations, the country has threatened to resume testing long-range nuclear missiles.

India, a silk drape. 
During Xi Jinping's visit to India, Narendra Modi gave him a red silk cloth depicting the portrait of the Chinese leader, made in Tamil Nadu. On Wednesday 9 October, Indian defense minister Rajnath Singh also discussed with his french counterpart about the fight against terrorism. India is developing a nationwide facial recognition system, Buzzfeed reports. The Indian foreign minister then expressed concern about the Turkish intervention on the Syrian border, asking to respect the territorial sovereignty of the state. The country then commissioned 36 Rafale war fighters to French manufacturer Dassault Aviation. Pakistan replies that it knows how to defend itself in the event of an attack.

Stefano Sartorio


United Kingdom, the increasingly winding path to exit from the EU. In recent weeks the situation was about to fall: European leaders seemed skeptical about the possibility of a peaceful divorce. The apex was touched with the visit of the President of the European Parliament Sassoli to London: the Italian, chased by journalists, seemed furious with the British premier for the proposal to resolve the Irish problem through the local authorities in Belfast. In the last hours, however, there seems to have been a turning point: the meeting between Johnson and the Irish Prime Minister Varadkar in Liverpool seems to have laid the foundations for a solution. Meanwhile, the Queen's October 14th speech is expected.

Italy, Conte in the middle of a spy story. For now it's all very complicated, but Prime Minister Conte will report to Copasir (the parliamentary committee dealing with security) about a possible meeting between Minister Barr and the heads of the Italian secret services. The US administration is allegedly investigating a counter Russia-gate, or the idea that the latter may have been a move by the Democrats to discredit Trump. It appears that Conte has made available to Barr our services and, consequently, the information in their possession. In the hearing at the Copasir, the premier will have to report not only if the meeting took place or not, but in whose interest. All this would have happened in the last days of the yellow-green government and, shortly afterwards, Trump tweeted his support for the famous Giuseppi Conte.

European Union, rejected the candidate proposed by Macron. The French president, who played a fundamental role in the game of European appointments, saw the candidate he proposed as commissioner fail with 89 against 29 yes. Sylvie Goulard has a rich political career. From 2001 to 2004 she was a counselor to the President of the Prodi Commission, from 2009 to 2017 MEP in the Alde group and finally minister of defense for the Macron government. Rumors have already circulated about a possible trespassing by the People and Merkel, but we must not forget that Goulard is under investigation in France and Olaf (EU anti-fraud body) for a doubtful use of funds in the remuneration of an assistant .

Italy between recovery and recession. The Italian situation inside the communitarian borders is increasingly complicated. On one side the Italian Treasure Minister Roberto Gualtieri has high hopes that the European Union will give the green light to the fiscal measures set by the government. On the other side the incumbent Commissioner to the Economic Affair for the European Union Pierre Moscovici expresses not so comforting words for Italy. Moscovici does not promise any discount and call for a full application of the European Stability Pact. The Italian pragmatic goals concerning public finance will be defined before the end of his presidency with the Minister Gualtieri and the successor lead of the European Economic Affairs Paolo Gentiloni. This will be an intricate relation between the parts.

The future of Portugal inside the European Union. 
Portuguese citizens have voted on the 6 of October and they have expressed their opinion; It would seem that they have given again to the Socialist leader Antonio Costa the task to lead the country. The current Prime Minister is called to repeat a new socio economic miracle after the recovery of Lisbon. The government has done so greatly exploiting the economic aids derived from the international rescue of IMF BCE-UE. In this way socialist has known overcome austerity phase. Nonetheless, by the economist of the Lese Business School Pedro Videla underline that markets dangers are everywhere, and it is important to continue on this path with investments, deficit reduction and fortification of the banking system.

Success of the Popular and fall of the far-right party in the Austrian elections. 
Interesting news from the political elections in Austria on national and communitarian level. The People’s Party (ÖVP) of Sebastian Kurz largely won the elections held at the end of September 2019. Dramatic collapse of the far-right party that lost 10 points due to the Ibiza-gate scandal. There is another real winner of these elections: The Green party. Their candidate leader Werner Kogler dampens the tones for a possible coalition with the ÖVP unless an environmentalist turning of the latter. This is a historical success for the People’s party, but no one knows what path will be followed about political alliances. Concerning the communitarian matters this could be the beginning of a political distention between Italy and Austria on the migrant issue, and about the rigid Austrian position on the greater economic flexibility requested by Italy.

Leonardo Cherici and Dario Pone


Russia, eyes on the Middle East.
The Turkish military intervention in the north-east of Syria against Kurdish militias have given an opportunity to let the dialogue between Russia, Syria and Turkey be again on the world stage and to discuss about the future of Syrian fate. Now Moscow enters in the scene being worried that the military intervention against the Kurds could damage the integrity of the Syrian territory, and it is interested in a peaceful resolution of what seems to be a potential new regional conflict in the Middle East. Russia has all the interests in creating a dialogue between Ankara and Damascus, to increase its influence in the region and to not let its presence compromised in a strategic country such as Syria, which represents the only partner on which Moscow can count to participate in international affairs in the Middle East. Russia is trying to stabilize Syria; is it an attempt to take a bigger step in the region and to drag Turkey in its sphere of influence?

Moscow continues to pursue the Arctic.
In occasion of his participation at the Valdai Discussion Club, a think tank and discussion forum based in Moscow, Putin has reiterated Russia’s interests in the Arctic region, explaining a new infrastructural project to link ports in the Arctic with the ones existing in the Indian ocean. It will require an investment of 230 billion rubles, as reported by The Moscow Times, that correspond to 3 and a half billion of U.S. dollars, to build a communication system that is able to connect eastern Siberia with the Eurasian maritime hubs, through the Northern Sea Route. The implementation of such project will require also an intensive development of railways to allow transports from Russia’s strategic points to the Sabetta port, in Siberia, which represents a new construction to promote maritime shipments across Arctic waters.

Zelensky ready to start negotiations with Moscow.
Ukraine’s President Zelensky has confirmed the willing to open the negotiation process with its Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, to obtain the release of political prisoners held in captivity in Russia and in the territories occupied by separatist rebels. Zelensky has also confirmed the will to pursue an agreement to stop the Crimean conflict through the Normandy format and, as the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Vadym Prystaiko has stated, a date for the next meeting between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany has already been decided. After having concluded his fifth phone call with Angela Merkel after the inauguration of his Presidency, Zelensky seems to be resolute to take peace negotiations on the next level to assure a brighter future for the people living in the Donbass region. However, the achievement of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine still seems to be far away, after both countries have begun to accuse each other to not want to withdraw troops from the combat lines. Further developments are expected during October.

Kosovo between new faces and the unique noti.
 Fresh elections in the Republic of Kosovo in order to define the new government. This is the fourth time that the legislation does not end, and this is a matter of great concern inside the national borders just like inside the European community. This instability in fact obstacle Kosovar hopes to carry on with the procedural path in order to entry in the European Union. For the elections of the 6 of October there have not been a coalition (PAN) that has characterized the previous polls. The parties have run singularly and then they will research alliance after the elections. Indeed, the proportional electoral law imposes to give representation to the minority inside the country. There are important tidings, with the Democratic Party, founded by the current President of the Republic Hashim Thaçi, that risks to remain out of the coming government. Nonetheless the great change is related to the first woman candidate leader Vjosa Osmani. According to the polls her party (Democratic league of Kosovo) undermines the primacy of the first party of the country: the Vetëvendosje (VV) of Albin Kurti.

The composition of the European Commission met the first obstacles.

The formation of the European Commission has always been very complicated. This time seems that the path will be more difficult than ever. The European Warranty Commission has rejected the Romanian and Hungarian candidacies to the Commission. Rovana Plumb for Romania, currently vice-president of the Socialist group inside the European Parliament; Laszlo Trocsanyi, Minister of Justice in the Orbans’ government. The candidacies have been declined for conflict of interest. A fight, inside the European institutions that risk to procrastinate the formation of the Commission and her job. Today is not clear if these candidacies mean a way to approach to those two countries of the east Europe, or a simple provocation of the Commission next president. Regardless to it, this could be a problem also in the relations between the countries and the EU.

The blackmail of Erdogan to europe and the betrayal to the Kurds.
 On the 10 of October 2019 the Turkish President Erdogan started military operations in Syria. The withdrawal of the U.S troops from the zone has given the green light to the head of state of Turkey in order to attack the Kurds’ militiamen in the north of Syria. For Turkey the Kurds are terrorist and threat to their territorial integrity so like an enemy to defeat. Nonetheless Kurds are the same people that have fought, boots on the ground, the war against the Islamic State (IS) and that now was left alone by Washington and Brussels. From the European Union has arrived strong declarations of condemnation, just like the one of the Italian Prime Minister and those one of the President of the European Parliament Sassoli. As a matter of fact, today there has been only words, with the exception of Finland, Norway and Denmark that have suspended the sales of weapons to Ankara, while the EU is motionless. The move of Erdogan is clever, to a European community that has always been weak towards Turkey. The Turkish president today even blackmail the EU using millions of Syrian refugees, if the EU will continue to condemn the Turkish military operations in Syria.

Andrea Maria Vassallo e Mario Ghioldi


Iraq, popular protests against the government are rampant. From Tuesday, October 1st, large-scale street mobilizations are shaking Iraq. The demonstrations began in Baghdad (the capital) and then spread to the southern regions of the country. The reasons for the protests are found in the rampant corruption that marks the Iraqi political class, as well as in the high national unemployment rate. The clashes between police and protesters have caused more than a hundred victims and thousands of wounded. The most important religious figure in the country, Ayatollah al-Sistani, declared that he supported the cause of the mobilizations and accused the government of sternly repressing peaceful protests. Moqtada Sadr, leader of the Sadrist movement (which is the main block in the Parliament), called for the resignation of Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi and new elections.

Red Sea, an Iranian oil tanker on fire.
On Friday 11 October, an explosion caused a fire on board an Iranian oil tanker (belonging to the National Iranian Oil Company) sailing in the Red Sea. The boat was 60 km from the Saudi city of Jeddah when it was hit by two missiles launched from the coast - as reported by the Iranian authorities. According to local news agencies, no member of the crew would be injured and the ship's condition would be stable. Tehran has announced that it is "a terrorist act" and therefore tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are likely to increase further.

Syria, the Turkish threat materializes in the use of weapons.
Erdogan had warned: the Kurds were in his sights, all the more so in the absence of the US to shield him. Indeed, from October 9 the offensive in the North-East of Syria against the Ypg militia took place to hit the positions across the border and eliminate them from the east bank of the Euphrates. The Kurds, after fighting the ISIS, now find themselves being targeted by Turkey, which considers them as terrorists. The Turkish incursion started from two border towns, Tel Abyad and Ras al Ayn, and is continuing to penetrate from kilometer to kilometer with the passing of days; so far they have conquered 13 villages in the two provinces. The strategic city of Ras al Ain at the moment would be conquered by the Turkish militia, while the offensive continues also on Tel Abyad. In the battle, errors seem to be admitted: a company made up of a hundred US soldiers was hit by Turkish artillery shots near Kobane; no physical damage has been reported, but US irritation is palpable.

The international community: opposition from the East to the West.
The consequences of Turkish operations go far beyond the estimated 400 neutralized Kurds; at least 130,000 civilians would be fleeing from the beginning of the offensive, the prelude to a vast humanitarian crisis. The UN Security Council finds itself divided over a declaration condemning the Turkish operation (to oppose Russia and China). The United States and the European Union are mainly encouraged by the prospect of sanctions against Ankara. From the EU, the will that transpires is that of not being powerless in the face of these threats but of imposing sanctions, while unilaterally the Netherlands, France and Germany have suspended arms exports to Turkey. The green light seems to be coming from the White House to impose sanctions. The Arab League, underlining the urgency of a UN intervention, stated that "the Turkish aggression against Syria is a direct threat to Arab national security, as well as to international peace and security".

Tunisia, presidential candidate Nabil Karoui leaves prison.
The tycoon Karoui, the favorite with Kais Saied in the first run-off of the Tunisian presidential election, is once again at large. The Cassation took the decision to end the detention, just a few days before the second round; the arrest, which had taken place at the end of August due to the accusation of money laundering, financial fraud and corruption, did not however prevent the powerful businessman from running for presidential status, obtaining 15.6% of the votes. Despite having crossed the threshold of the prison (to the delight of his supporters) and is officially at liberty, the charges against him are still valid. Following the second round, held on October 13, the first exit polls consecrate the independent conservative jurist Kaies Saied, the new president of Tunisia, with 72.53% of preferences. The TV tycoon Nabil Karoui seems to have been defeated, at a distance of several tens of points at 27.47%; higher than 50% the turnout rate.

Vincenzo Battaglia e Federica Sulpizio


Manchester, knife attack. On Friday 11th October, a man stabbed passersby (wounding three) in a central area of ​​Manchester. Therefore, the English city relived the nightmare of a jihadist attack after the tragic attack, in May 2017, during the concert of the pop star Ariana Grande (22 victims). The police immediately arrested the attacker, who was initially accused of "terrorism". The following day, however, the case passed under the jurisdiction of the law on mental illness. In fact, according to medical specialists, the attacker would be suffering from obvious psychiatric problems.

The Turkish offensive against the Kurds and the revival of the Islamic state.
The Turkish military maneuvers in the north-east of Syria could lead to the awakening of a player who remained silent (but not inactive for the last time): the ISIS. The jihadist movements have always shown their ability to exploit situations of crisis and conflict to assert themselves. Therefore, the Turkish invasion risks opening up new spaces within which the Islamic State will try to slip into. Furthermore, a subtle fil rouge links the ongoing conflict in Syria and the related consequences of the revival of IS to European security: The potential return home of European foreign fighters after the bombing of Kurdish prisons where they were detained. There would be around 2,200 european fighters of ISIS and, for now, there are five Italians under observation.

The jihadists alongside Erdogan.
Turkey is using jihadist groups to wage war on the Kurds. Indeed, within the National Syrian Army, deployed on the Ankara side, there are various extremist Islamic factions. Among these, we must mention Al Sharqiya, an armed group of Syrian rebels founded by former members of the Qaedist formation Al Nusra. This cell is accused of having made some agreements with ISIS in the past. The brutalities committed by jihadist militiamen (Turkish allies) are documented by a series of images and videos broadcast on social media

Halle, anti-Semitic attack.
On Wednesday 9th October, Stephan Balliet, a 27-year-old German, attempts an assault on a synagogue but remains locked out. The killer decides, therefore, to kill two non-Jewish passers-by, a woman who was walking and a man inside a shop and then fleeing. The man resumes his actions, through a camera posted on his helmet, for 35 minutes and puts the videos on a videogame site, presenting himself as "Anon" (anonymous user). The reason for his gesture was hatred of Jews and, for this reason, he decided to strike on the day of Yom Kippur, the Jewish religious celebration that celebrates the day of atonement. The man was arrested and the video is in the possession of the investigators. It is therefore an "extreme right" matrix attack with anti-Semitic motivations.

The head of Al Qaeda in southern Asia was killed.
Al Qaeda leader responsible for South Asia, Asim Umar, was killed in southern Afghanistan last month with a joint operation with US forces. This was confirmed by Kabul intelligence, pointing out that the Islamist leader was shot to death in a raid in the Musa Qala district on September 23rd. Umar, who was Pakistani, was killed along with six other members of Al Qaeda in the Indian sub-continent (Aqis).

Laura Vaccaro Senna and Vincenzo Battaglia


NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Turkey outside the Alliance is not possible: the Atlantic Pact does not provide for the removal of a member country. Meanwhile, Italy has deployed the most recently criticized F-35A, the new fifth-generation fighter-bombers in Iceland, for the first time in NATO. This places Italy in a state of excellence in the deployment of military devices and in these days the President Conte has declared that Italy will invest 7 billion euros more per year for NATO, these are really important figures.

United Nations - Turkey has attacked northern Syria, the region inhabited and controlled by the population of Kurdish origin.
The Security Council, supported in particular by the United States, France and Great Britain, tries to approve a declaration of common condemnation for the Turkish aggression but opposes Russia and China. The Arab League met in Cairo on 12 October calling the Turkish aggression on Syria as "a direct threat to Arab national security, as well as to international peace and security". It also adds: "it is a flagrant violation of the principles of the United Nations Charter". Meanwhile, while proceeding as soon as possible to a solution of the Turkish aggression against Syria by various means starting from the diplomatic ones, the United Nations declares that 64 countries have not paid their fees to the International Organization, among them the United States . You can check the list at this link of Il Sole 24 Ore. This happens precisely when the US President declares at the General Assembly: "The future belongs to the patriots, not to the globalists". Is this an explanation signal? In Yemen, meanwhile, the silent war, since it is very rarely heard of, could lead the country to be the poorest in the world as early as 2022 when 79% of the population will be below the poverty line.

Michele Pavan

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Andrea Maria Vassallo: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia Federation
Dario Pone: Western Europe and European Union; Central and Eastern Europe and Russia Federation
Federica Sulpizio: Middle East and North Africa
Laura Vaccaro Senna: Terrorism and International Security
Leonardo Aldeghi: Economy and International Finance
Leonardo Cherici: Western Europe and European Union
Marcello Alberizzi: Sub-Saharan Africa
Mario Ghioldi: South America, Central Eastern Europe and Russia Federation
Marta Stroppa: Human Rights
Michele Pavan: North America, South America, Oceania and International Organizations
Stefano Sartorio: Asia and Far East
Vincenzo Battaglia: Middle East and North Africa; Terrorism and International Security

Original article: issued on 2 September 2019.

Translated by: Andrea Maria Vassallo, Dario Pone, Federica Sulpizio, Laura Vaccaro Senna, Leonardo Aldeghi, Leonardo Chierici, Marcello Alberizzi, Mario Ghioldi, Marta Stroppa, Michele Pavan, Stefano Sartorio, Vincenzo Battaglia, Simona Maria Vallefuoco.

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From the World Framing the World


Economia Internazionale Africa America Europa Medio Oriente terrorismo Organizzazioni internazionali

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