Framing The World, Numero XLXII

HUMAN RIGHTS

Sri Lanka, the number of abuses grows. The United Nations Human Rights Council, in its next session, should approve a resolution to improve the human rights situation in Sri Lanka. On January 27, High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet had spoken out against the alarming progressive deterioration of human rights in the country. "The UN High Commissioner's report highlights Sri Lanka's egregious record of complete impunity for appalling crimes and very troubling developments under the Rajapaska administration," commented John Fisher, Geneva director as Human Rights Watch reports. He also pointed out that for several years appeals have been made to the local government and opportunities provided to ameliorate these problems, but now the situation calls for greater international involvement in order to protect all those vulnerable people and bring to justice those guilty of international crimes.

Pakistan, a new law seeks greater control over the media. The government of Pakistan is trying to further control the media. The alarm comes from Pakistani journalists who point out that the law recently proposed by the government will increase the powers of PEMRA, the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority. Among the planned changes there is the possibility of access to independent media data, but also the possibility of a growing campaign of censorship and repression of the media. In the country it is already forbidden to criticize the government, there are many closed television stations, but it is also difficult to interview live opposition leaders or broadcast critical programs. For the moment, the spoken out against the bill, but the issue is not closed yet.

The Bolsonaro administration cracks down on critics of the response to Covid-19. During the 1964 to 1985 dictatorship of the country, a repressive law was enacted that President Bolsonaro is now using against all those people who criticize the management of the global health emergency. "The national security law - says José Miguel Vivanco, Americas director for Human Rights Watch - grants special protections to the reputations of high-level officials, including the president, and the armed forces that no other citizen or institution receives”. It seems alarming that in a democratic country that is supposed to protect freedom of expression, criticism cannot be expressed for fear of sanctions, repression or retaliation. "The Brazilian Congress - Vivanco continues - should conform the country's laws to international human rights standards”.

Repression intensifies in Democratic Republic of Congo. Media and activists also repressed in Democratic Republic of Congo by President Tshisekedi's administration. Initially, reports Human Rights Watch, there were some steps towards respect for human rights, but recently have grown threats, arrests and arbitrary detentions of journalists, activists and all those considered critical of the government. "People in Congo - says Thomas Fessy, chief Congo researcher for HRW - should not fear harassment or arrest for criticizing the government or protesting peacefully”. The latest case involves eight young democracy activists who were arrested and detained for a month on charges of "sabotage and violence against state security guards”.

Ahmed Mansoor, activist persecuted by UAE authorities. The story of the UAE activist is enriched with new details that denounce violations of his rights and how much the State Security Agency exploits its position of power to carry out abuses. A recent report on the persecution of Ahmed Mansoor reveals some unprecedented aspects of his trial that was held behind closed doors, highlighting serious violations partly because he was not assured a fair trial, but also the terrible conditions of detention he has been subjected to since March 2017. "New details reveal how cruelly the United Arab Emirates treated Ahmed Mansoor - says MichaelPage, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch - the most celebrated human rights activist who bravely stood up to the violent government and demanded that it respect human rights when few would dare”.

Attacks on LGBT people in Malaysia. An attempt to strengthencriminal penalties against LGBT people is underway in the country, the latest act in a crescendo of anti-LGBT and human rights actions by the Malaysian government. The amendment would allow Sharia courts to provide for a tightening of penalties for people of the same sex. Deputy Minister for Religious Affairs Ahmad Marzuk's proposal is also - Human Rights Watch reports - to codify gender reassignment and sharing content considered indecent on social media as Sharia crimes. "In Malaysia transgender people live in fear of being targeted and prosecuted just for who we are”, says Nisha Ayub, transgender activist recalling how LGBT people are also part of society and should also be protected and safeguarded by law.

Federico Brignacca

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

2021, mixed forecasts. The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth forecasts for 2021, but has also warned that the situation of exceptional uncertainty that has accompanied us for a year is not over yet and that new waves of infection can reverse this progress in just a few weeks. If the IMF regards China and the United States as two economies traveling at a sustained pace on their way to recovering and surpassing their pre-crisis levels, with growth rates of +8% and +5% respectively, the same cannot be said of Europe: for the Old Continent, in fact, the IMF has slashed its growth forecasts by a full point to +4%. In addition, major disparities are expected within the Union, with countries such as Spain and France growing by 5.9% and 5.5% respectively, while others such as Italy will struggle to reach +3%.

Hedge funds, 2020 at its best. 2020 was a record year for U.S. hedge funds, although the same cannot be said for 2021 (see below). In fact, the top 20 performing funds earned an impressive $63.5 billion for their clients, the best result since 2010, and the top three funds, Tiger Global, Millennium and Lone Pine earned $10.4, $10.2 and $9.1 billion, respectively. Total industry capitalization came in at $3.6 trillion at the end of 2020, up $290 billion in just 3 months, which is also the fastest growth in history. However, if the average return of a U.S. fund was 10%, much better did those funds that also invested in cryptocurrencies, which on average rose 193% dragged by the triple-digit rises in bitcoin.

Biden-Wall Street, a good start. The inauguration of the Biden administration and the initial economic policy choices pushed the American markets to yet another new all-time high, with the biggest rise between elections and inauguration for the S&P 500 (+14%), leaving Trump (+6.2%) and Obama (+4%) well behind. The optimism is mainly dictated by Biden's intention to intervene massively in the economy with a new $1.9 trillion stimulus that, although in its current form has little chance of being approved and will probably be scaled back to around $1 trillion, will give further impetus to the U.S. economy, which for Goldman Sachs is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2021, a rate close to those of China and much higher than Europe (4%). In addition, the preliminary estimate of the GDP for the fourth quarter has been confirmed, up 4%, despite the rising COVID infection cases in the late autumn.

Markets, Reddit causes uncertainty. The new president's honeymoon with the markets did not last long, as Wall Street experienced in the middle of last week its worst session since October and accumulated losses of around 4% over the following days. The week had started off on a high note, driven by the technology sector and the results of giants such as Microsoft, Netflix, Facebook and Apple, which all beat their Q4 2020 forecasts and more than compensated for the heavy losses of IBM and Intel, and all those stocks that only stand to gain from the green transition promised by Biden, such as Ford (+8.5%). However, the short squeeze started by Reddit users (see below) caused all markets to turn negative, both because of a certain fear of being in a bubble ready to burst and, above all, because many hedge funds had to sell part of the stocks in their portfolios to strengthen the liquidity of their funds, put to the test by the incredible rises of some stocks such as GameStop and AMC.

Reddit v. Wall Street/1. The story of the year comes from a Reddit community, Wallstreetbets, that thanks to the coordinated purchase of GameStop shares and other companies such as Nokia and AMC by its members, caused the prices of these stocks to skyrocket, with daily rises between 150 and 300% and overall growth since the beginning of the year that in the case of GameStop reached +1914%. It all started with 34-year-old Keith Gill investing $53,000 in GameStop's stock and call options in the summer of 2019, believing them to be very undervalued and describing this strategy on the community board and on YouTube. Gill also believed that several hedge funds were playing dirty, having sold “short” over 140% of the existing shares. This means that someone has been selling stocks that don't actually exist, thus leading to the possibility of creating a billion-dollar short squeeze.

Reddit v. Wall Street/2. A short refers to an investor who borrows shares from other investors, sells them and hopes to buy them back at a lower price, and make a profit equal to the difference between the two prices. In doing so, however, one is exposed to the risk that the price will rise and that, before the expiration of the “loan”, one will be forced to buy them back at a higher price and book a loss. Now, the price goes up if the demand increases, but in the current situation the hedge funds that have shorted GameStop are struggling to find shares to buy given the huge demand generated by the Redditors, and the ones they find have gone from about $15 to over $325. For those with expiring loans, such as Melvin Capital, the only option was to buy at any price, even at the cost of losing over $1 billion on GameStop alone. Since Jan. 1, short-sellers hedge funds have lost $19.75 billion.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Central African Republic, state of emergency declared. Faustin-Archange Touadera has been reconfirmed head of state by the Central African Supreme Court, after having rejected all the accusations of fraud made by the opposition. The main problem remains that of security: last Thursday, the government in Bangui declared a state of emergency until February 4. Large areas of the country are still under the control of militiamen who have attacked government posts several times. Given the insecurity throughout the country, Mankeur Ndiaye, representative of the UN Secretary General in Central Africa, has asked the Security Council to approve the sending of more blue helmets as soon as possible. Humanitarian workers have difficulty in bringing aid to the population because of the incessant attacks by militiamen.

Ethiopia, the war rages in Tigray. War and violence continue, despite the self-declaration of the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, who announced the military victory against the Tigray rebels some time ago. A few days ago a massacre took place in Aksum, in the Orthodox Church of Our Lady Mary of Zion. According to leaks, as many as 750 people were killed. The former foreign minister, 71-year-old Seyoum Mesfin was also killed along with two other members of the political formation, because they had refused to surrender to federal troops. The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) humanitarian workers confirmed that to date they have no access to some camps hosting Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia, not to mention rural areas, which are unreachable.

Mozambique, 500 thousand dollars destined for the poor have vanished. In Mozambique, almost 500,000 dollars destined for the poorest rural communities in the north of the country have disappeared. The complaint comes from the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) report, published in December 2020, referring to 2019. The government, under Mozambican law, must allocate 2.75 percent of mineral and gas revenues to local communities affected by extractive industries. "The EITI report, for 2019, says the government cheated communities out of US$443,000," Hanlon argues. In Maputo, the Centro de Integridade Publica (CIP), last October, compiled an index of transparency of extractive industries: the least transparent is precisely Empresa Mocambicana de Exploracao Mineira, a state-owned mining company.

Liberia, rapes are now a national emergency. Last September 11, President George Weah had declared rape a "national emergency": Weah had announced several repressive measures, such as the appointment of a special prosecutor for rape cases, the establishment of a national registry of sex offenders, the creation of a task force against gender-based violence and the allocation of $ 2 million to address the problem, which has increased significantly during the pandemic. Yet, nearly four months later, none of the promises from last September have been realized. According to the Ministry of Social Affairs, the announced funds never arrived. By now, many believe it was just a political move to stop protests by Liberian women.

Uganda, reported fraud and violence in the presidential election. The outgoing president, Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986, has been reconfirmed in government with 59% of the votes. Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, immediately challenged the results, denouncing electoral fraud in a tweet: “despite the violence and fraud that occurred throughout the country, the situation looks good. Now it's all up to the head of the Electoral Commission, Simon Mugenyi Byabakama and its members, to announce the will of the Ugandan people”. Wine also denounced that during the election day some observers of his party were arrested and complained about the malfunction of several biometric machines used to verify the identity of voters.

Senegal, the Great Green Wall. The ambitious Great Green Wall project foresees the creation of a green belt of at least 100 million hectares which, by 2030, should cross almost all of Africa, from Senegal to Djibouti, and aims to give new life to degraded land and stop desertification. The initiative was launched in 2007 and it is about to be reinforced by a new contribution of 14 billion dollars by 2025 from the European Union, the World Bank and the African Bank. In Senegal, the project should cover an area of 500 kilometers long, from the Atlantic Ocean to the east, and 100 wide.

Martina Pignatelli

NORTH AMERICA

Two important decisions by the Biden administration. Marking a reversal of the previous presidency, it is worth noticing that Biden announced his intention to restore funding for the UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund), which deals with sexual and reproductive health. In 2017, former President Trump had stopped funding because it “supports coercive abortion and involuntary sterilisation”, in his words. Another noteworthy decision by the new US administration concerns the signing of an executive order to tackle systemic racism and inequality in the country. In particular, it is about preventing the government's use of private prisons, which the authorities have been using since the 1980s because of the problems within these prisons, especially the low quality of life of prisoners.

(Marta Annalisa Savino)

Vaccines for indigenous people. The vaccination campaign in Canada is continuing at a rapid pace but the first difficulties can already be seen due to the low number of doses available. Many provinces are already reorganizing themselves to avoid leaving the most vulnerable population uncovered. Indigenous Affairs Minister Marc Miller that indigenous communities will remain a priority even in the event of a shortage of doses. Many of these communities are poor and far from hospital services, especially the Inuit people who live very close to the Arctic Circle. Miller pointed out “This is not a political game. It's about science, it's about facts, it's about health care. We have the numbers, the casualties. Indigenous peoples are 3.5 to five times more vulnerable to COVID”.

(Lorenzo Bonaguro)

Marta Annalisa Savino and Lorenzo Bonaguro

LATIN AMERICA

Argentina, the abortion law and the debt crisis. The abortion law has come into force, while its detractors are already planning to take it to the Constitutional Court to verify the legitimacy of some of its passages. On the subject of debt negotiations with the IMF, the government has announced that it will not accept the imposition of an economic programme. On the contrary, Argentina's leadership would like to project a recovery plan on its own. The government is convinced that it can restore the country's economy through the agricultural sector and the exploitation of the oil fields identified in Patagonia. An important objective to pursue in the coming months will therefore be to reach an extensive agreement with the agro-industrial sector.

(Ginevra Ricca)

Chile, project against migrant smuggling. Foreign Minister Andrés Allamand presented a project, in which he also intends to involve Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru, to combat the illegal trafficking of migrants arriving from Venezuela. The undersecretary of the Ministry of the Interior, Juan Francisco Galli, announced that this is an important measure to stop what is a blatant violation of human rights. The undersecretary also said that the problem is exacerbated by the presence of the Venezuelan crisis. This is a project involving the judiciary, politics and diplomacy, with closer cooperation between these three branches in the various countries involved. Attempts at coordination between the five states involved are already underway.

(Ginevra Ricca)

Ecuador, the OAS in the upcoming elections and the relations with the United States. The Organisation of American States has announced that it will be present as an observer in the upcoming elections to be held in Ecuador on 7 February. Specifically, citizens will be asked to vote for the presidency and vice-presidency, the National Assembly and the Andean Parliament. Furthermore, with Biden taking office in the White House, the US Ambassador to Ecuador, Mike Fitzpatrick, stressed the importance of maintaining bilateral relations between the two countries. The ambassador was enthusiastic about the forthcoming elections, which he said would certainly confirm the continuity of democratic institutions.

(Ginevra Ricca)

Mexico. President Obrador urges president Biden on migration issue. With the new US administration officially taking office, Mexico is hoping for a change of course and, consequently, a more constructive approach from Washington on migration. President Obrador urged the new administration to enact the reforms promised, in order to renew a full cooperation in tackling the most serious regional migration crisis in decades. According to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística of the Federal Government, in the 2000-2020 period the foreign population resident in Mexico has increased from 492,617 to 1,212,252 (+146%). It was precisely a caravan of about 6,000 migrants from Honduras, heading for the United States, that set off a few days before Biden's inauguration, that led Obrador to issue the warning. Obrador's hope is that Biden's US will keep its word in terms of reform, finally turning the corner after four very complicated years in humanitarian terms.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Peru, Fujimori's hard line. On 25 January, the leader of the Fuerza Popular party, Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the former dictator, announced her government programme for the upcoming elections on 11 April. In an official video she stated that the programme will be based on the hard line. She said that democracy cannot be weak and must be based on authority, especially in the face of a major challenge such as the pandemic. Fujimori is currently under investigation for corruption and was placed in pre-trial detention in 2020, a situation she was able to get out of thanks to Covid-19. In addition, her brother, Kenji, has been charged with buying and selling votes for former president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. On 22 January, Peruvian justice rejected Kenji Fujimori's request for an appeal.

(Ginevra Ricca)

Venezuela, the political situation and the oil problem. While the new US administration seems to publicly express its support for Juan Guaidó, the European Council called for the immediate release of political prisoners. The EU says it is ready to impose new sanctions. Meanwhile, there is a shortage of diesel in Venezuela, which has a major impact on many sectors of the economy, as well as on food distribution. Indeed, diesel production has dropped dramatically compared to the past due to the government's lack of maintenance of facilities. There seems to be a 60% production deficit. About 40,000 barrels a day are produced out of the 90,000 barrels that, according to experts, would be needed to meet national needs.

(Ginevra Ricca)

Davide Shahhosseini and Ginevra Ricca

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

China, a further tightening on Hong Kong and the beginning of the WHO investigation. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has recently stated that the British National Overseas (BNO) passport, which the UK offers to Hong Kong residents to obtain English citizenship, will no longer be recognized as an identity document from the 31st of January. In the past few days, the team of thirteen experts from the World Health Organization (WHO) has ended the two weeks mandatory quarantine and has started investigations into the origins of the Coronavirus in Wuhan. The first step will be to interview several Chinese doctors and scientists who have faced the health crisis at its origins.

(Margherita Camurri)

Taiwan, tensions with Beijing and the economic growth. Last week, over ten Chinese military aircrafts carried out a 'major incursion' into Taiwanese territory. Held in the first days of United States President Joe Biden’s term of office, the operation aimed to provoke a reaction from the new American administration. After President Biden confirmed his support for Taiwan, the Chinese Ministry of Defense threatened Taipei by declaring that 'Taiwan independence means war'. By contrast the country succeeds in triumphing economically as, thanks to a strong increase in exports of electronic components, the Taiwanese economy grew faster in 2020 than the Chinese one for the first time in thirty years.

(Margherita Camurri)

North Korea, diplomat is reported to have fled to South Korea. His name is Ryu Hyun-woo, he worked as a diplomat for North Korea in Kuwait and is said to have fled with his family. Although the defection took place in 2019, only now has the press received news of this affair and it is not the first case of desertion of a North Korean diplomat stationed abroad. Generally, those who defect do not have an alternative but to reach the border with South Korea and cross it. When the government has no news of them, it officially declares them as missing. In this case, the media claim Ryu arrived in South Korea in secret in September 2019 to seek asylum. He is a high-ranking North Korean official and he is thought to have knowledge about the funds of North Korean leadership.

(Lydia Milly Certa)

South Korea, new improved military equipment. South Korea is on the verge of making public a new cutting-edge fighter aircraft. We are talking of the KF-X which falls within the group of '4.5' generation fighter jets. It is the first time such military technology is designed and developed indigenously by the country. It is reported the jet is in the final stages of the assembling process and it is likely to be presented officially in April. It is more advanced than previous F-4 and F-5 jets that have been part of the South Korean Air Force up to now. Forty units are planned to be delivered by 2028 and 80 by 2032 so that the Air Force fleet could be completely renewed by that time.

(Lydia Milly Certa)

Japan, one-year interim agreement on cost-sharing for American troops. Japan has proposed to the administration of the new US President, Joe Biden, to sign a one-year interim cost-sharing agreement to house American troops, while negotiations on a long-term agreement continue. The Foreign Minister, Toshimitsu Motegi, suggested this strategy during a phone call last week with the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. According to government sources, operational discussions have also gone in the same direction, as Washington has expressed support for the idea. Tokyo bears part of the cost of stationing about 55,000 U.S. servicemen in Japan under a bilateral security treaty, also known as host nation support, and the current five-year deal is set to expire in March.

(Andrea Angelo Coldani)

India, internet cut to hunger-striking farmers in Delhi. India has suspended mobile internet services in three areas around the capital, Delhi, where farmers are staging a hunger strike in protest at new agriculture laws. The government said the shutdown would continue until Sunday night to ‘maintain public safety’. Tens of thousands of protesting farmers have been camped out on Delhi's outskirts for more than a month. Talks between unions and the government have failed to break the deadlock. Protesters themselves reacted angrily to the internet shutdown: one farmer, Sandee Sharma, accused officials of trying to ‘create a panic’ while another, Bhavesh Yadav, said it was ‘killing democracy’.

(Andrea Angelo Coldani)

Lydia Milly Certa, Margherita Camurri and Andrea Angelo Coldani

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Netherlands, anti-curfew protests and clashes with police. On Sunday 24th January, a series of protests took place in the Netherlands, following the government’s decision to adopt a curfew from 21 to 4.30. The measure became necessary to stop the spread of the Coronavirus and it will be in force until 10th February. The purpose of the demonstrations was to protest against the deprivation of freedom, but the situation degenerated into clashes with the police and acts of vandalism against shops. Clashes broke out in several Dutch cities, such as Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Maastricht; and thousands of people took part in the clashes. Police reported that at least 180 people were arrested in the latest confrontation. Prime Minister Rutte condemned the demonstrations as violent clashes and criminal acts.

(Alessandra Fiorani)

France, new strategic defence program and objectives. "Actualisation strategique 2021” is the name of the document published by the French Ministry of Defence for the renewal of its military strategy, including among the main focus innovation, nuclear, international terrorism, and others. France takes note of the new threats in the international system and it strengthens its strategy starting from the planning of the objectives that will be achieved by 2030. The budget available to the Ministry of Defence is increased by 1.7 billion euros, for a total of 39.2 billion euros. The objective of the program is to update French system, this reorganization was recommended by the same President Macron already in 2017.

(Alessandra Fiorani)

Italy, Giuseppe Conte resigns. The Prime Minister has resigned after Italia Viva withdrew its delegation from the executive. The "yellow and red" government was unable to find the numbers in Parliament to continue governing even without Matteo Renzi's party. After an initial round of consultations, President Mattarella assigned an exploratory mandate to the President of the Chamber of Deputies Roberto Fico (M5S) who will have to verify the willingness of the political forces to propose the same majority as the previous executive, with or without Conte. Should PD, M5S, IV and LEU fail to reach an agreement, it is possible that Mattarella will indicate the formation of an institutional government supported by a broad parliamentary base as a solution or, as a last resort, dissolve the Chambers, leading the country to new elections.

(Leonardo Cherici)

Portugal, election results. On 24 January, a vote was held in Portugal to elect the President of the Republic. The winner was Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who obtained 60% of the votes against the 13% of the socialist candidate Ana Gomes. De Sousa, who has been President since 2016, belongs to the centre-right, but has always maintained a good relationship with Prime Minister Antonio Costa, secretary of the Socialist Party. Before the elections, there were fears about the possible result of the far-right candidate André Ventura, who obtained only 12% of the preferences. A particularly important fact, however, was the turnout: because of Covid, it stopped at 39.5% of the eligible voters.

(Leonardo Cherici)

Leonardo Cherici and Alessandra Fiorani

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Estonia, two women at the helm. After the scandal that overwhelmed Prime Minister Juri Ratas’s Center Party, President Kersti Kaljulaid gave a mandate to Kaja Kallas to form a government able to govern the country in the difficult pandemic and economic situation. Secretary of the liberal-oriented Estonian Reformer Party, Kallas, daughter of Prime Minister Siim Kallas, entered politics in 2011 and quickly rose to the top of Estonian politics, also becoming an MEP. His government, which took office on January 26, is a coalition in which the Center Party also participates, with the sure support of 59 out of 101 deputies. The Kallas government faces the difficult challenge not only of withstanding the pandemic, but also of restarting the economy of the northernmost Baltic republic.

(Lorenzo Bonaguro)

Poland, abortion is illegal. After the vain attempts by Prime Minister Duda to find a softer position on restrictions on abortion, the decision of the Constitutional Court falls: abortion for reasons of malformation of the fetus is unconstitutional. The only cases allowed are rape, incest and health problems of the mother. The opposition groups have invoked the square which responded. As in recent months, tens of thousands of people took to the streets, frontline feminist groups and associations gathered under the auspices of the All-Poland Women’s Strike to demand the lifting of abortion restrictions and the resignation of Duda. The clash will still be very long: despite the strong pressure from the streets, the ruling Law and Justice party has very solid foundations in the political and financial world, as well as in civil society thanks to the support of the Polish Catholic Church.

(Lorenzo Bonaguro)

Sputnik V: it is a ‘‘yes’’ for Europe. This is the vaccine produced by the Russian National Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology Gamaleya, the first vaccine against Covid-19 to have been registered last August and to have been presented to the World Health Organization, alongside the giants AstraZeneca and Pfizer- Biontech, respectively British and American. The Russian government had already started the vaccination campaign before the end of 2020, and already some European countries such as Hungary, had shown interest in the doses of the Russian vaccine, while the rest of Europe had directed its interest towards quite another direction. Now, however, since the British and American multinationals have confirmed a delay in the delivery of their vaccine doses in Europe, Brussels has decided to focus on Sputnik V, also given the support of some of the main European leaders, such as the Chancellor German Angela Merkel.

(Arianna Giannino)

Naval’nyj: the case is still open. Russian police arrested at least 519 activists participating in protests across the country this morning in at least 35 cities to demand the release of Putin’s opponent and number one rival, Alexei Navalnyj. Since the latter’s return on January 17, numerous demonstrations and protests have occurred throughout Russia that the local police have not always been able to handle. Some protesters raise their billboards to the sky, which proudly read: ‘‘All for one, one for all!’’. Despite being arrested, Naval’nyj would continue to represent a real ‘‘thorn in the side’’ for Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

(Arianna Giannino)

Arianna Giannino and Lorenzo Bonaguro


MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Egypt, ten years after the Arab Spring. A decade ago Tahrir Square was occupied by thousands of protesters who, after eighteen days of protests, managed to oust Mubarak, autocrat in power for thirty years. The events that followed, however, rather than paving the way for a democratic transition, have plunged Egypt back into a re-edition of "Mubarakism" in the absence of its proponent. The repressive cloak that has been hanging over the country for seven years now is an acclaimed reality. Many are the Egyptian political exiles scattered throughout Europe, but even more are the opponents imprisoned at home. An increase in repression and the end of US support provided by the Trump administration could weaken the position of President al-Sisi, who over the years has been able to attract more and more power to himself by virtue of the fight against terrorism. It's too bad that the category of "terrorists" for al-Sisi includes all dissidents of the regime. A change of pace could occur only if the general lacks the support of the so-called "silent majority" at home.

(Federica Sulpizio)

Tunisia, at the mercy of revolts. While there are rumors of an attempt to poison President Kais Saied that, fortunately, was unsuccessful, the Tunisian streets once again become inflamed. This has occurred several times in recent days especially in the most disadvantaged suburbs of the capital, where the tension has risen to the limit with demonstrators in the streets heedless of the curfew that have clashed brutally with the police. The causes of the revolt are the same as ten years ago: unemployment and poverty. The economic problem in Tunisia has not been resolved and the wealth gap between the center and the periphery and between the different governorates remains wide; it seems that in Tunisia two worlds coexist that are destined never to meet. The pandemic situation has only ended up exasperating a latent rage, for which many have now gone so far as to call for the dissolution of parliament. Two were the most immediate consequences of the protests: thousands of arrests and a government reshuffle.

(Federica Sulpizio)

Libya, towards transition (?). The candidatures for the new national transition executive promoted by the UN-sponsored Libyan Dialogue Forum have now closed. Among the relevant figures are the president and the prime minister. According to local sources, candidates for the various positions include the president of Tobruk's legislative body, Aguila Saleh, and some members of the Tripolitan GNA government, including the vice-president himself, Ahmed Maiteeq, and the interior minister, Fathi Bashaga. Despite previous agreements in October 2020, the foreign mercenary forces, some 20,000 units, have not yet left Libyan soil. As a result, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Washington's Acting Ambassador to the UN Richard Mills urged the main foreign powers involved in the Libyan conflict to withdraw their forces from the country.

(Michele Magistretti)

Israel, the vaccine race, the election campaign. Israel is now firmly among the frontrunners in terms of the speed of implementation of its vaccination plan, although the final containment of the pandemic within the country is still uncertain. Although it has now reached more than 30% coverage among the population, and vaccination of the over-65s is almost complete but restrictions remain. It is precisely these restrictions that are once again the object of tension between the state authority and some of the more extreme fringes of the ultra-Orthodox world, and there have in fact been several demonstrations. The election campaign also brings some news. According to the latest polls, Bibi's Likud party seems to be losing ground and a future anti-Netanyahu coalition seems possible, which would exclude Bibi, the religious parties and the Arabs from the majority.

(Michele Magistretti)

Turkey, who are you talking to? In the last weeks, although Ankara’s tones have appeared surprisingly soothing, doubts remain about their concreteness. In fact, the resumption of a facade dialogue with Greece has actually been followed by a race to rearmament, as Athens has significantly increased its military spending and strengthened the system of proto-alliance with Cyprus, Egypt, Emirates and France. And despite the exchange of cordiality with Paris and the exhumation of its own “European project”, Turkey also continues to pursue a dual strategy aimed at energy and military independence. An attempt at détente is then underway with the Saudi-Emirati side since their reopening to Qatar, Ankara’s true ally. After the advent of a less compliant Biden, Erdogan’s fear is undoubtedly that of an unfortunate regional isolationism that could also narrow the space of his independence of action at home, where the vaccination campaign works but where the undaunted protests of university students remain a dangerous fuse.

(Samuele Abrami)

Palestinian Territories, the unexpected elections. Almost by surprise, on January 15th, PA President Abbas issued a decree-law functional to the holding of three rounds of elections: legislative for the National Assembly, presidential for the Palestinian Authority and those to form a new National Council of the PLO. The event is already relevant in itself, since it will be a return to the Palestinian vote after the splits of the last access to the polls in 2006. The real relevant signal, however, comes from the various political parties involved, after Prime Minister Shtayyeh notified full availability for the holding of free elections. Even more striking is not only the positive reception given to the presidential decree by Hamas but also the fact that the local press is talking about a possible joint candidacy of Hamas and Fatah. A historic and perhaps unthinkable compromise that could restore a minimum unity in the political voice of Palestine.

(Samuele Abrami)

Samuele Abrami and Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Iraq, Isis attack in Baghdad. On Thursday, 21 January, the Iraqi capital was hit by a double suicide attack in Tayaran Square, a central and very crowded place. The offensive, which left 35 people dead and 80 injured, was claimed by the Islamic State. In 2017, Iraq declared the military defeat of Isis despite this continuing to be active, especially in desert areas of the country. It was since June 2019 that Baghdad had not been at the centre of a terrorist attack, also in that case perpetrated by Daesh.

(Vincenzo Battaglia)

Mali, MINUSMA investigates Franco-Malian attack in Bounti. Under inquiry the air raid on January 3 which struck the village in central Mali. According to the official version of the French and Malian armies, the strike hit a group of armed jihadists. However, witnesses and residents of Bounti have disputed this version of events, claiming that the attack killed civilians who had gathered for a wedding. In recent weeks, several civil society and human rights organizations have called for an independent investigation: on January 25, investigators from MINUSMA's ‘Human Rights and Protection’ Division went to the site to begin the investigation. The issue is, unfortunately, part of a wider debate. While military circles claim the success of recent counter-terrorism operations in Mali, the increase in civilian casualties caused by government forces and allied militias is highly controversial.

(Laura Morreale)

Canada, included the Proud Boys among terrorist groups. Last Monday, Canada’s parliament unanimously approved the decision to list the far-right group as one of the illegal terrorist entities in the country. The measure has been defined as “symbolic”, since the Proud Boys are not significantly active in Canada to date, but the recent events on Capitol Hill have probably pushed the parliament to take a stance on the matter. However, the possibility that the group may become more present on Canadian soil is not so remote: in 2017, five members, belonging to the Canadian Armed Forces, had irrupted a ceremony of Mi'kmaq activists commemorating the genocide of their own people. The founder of the white supremacist group is the Canadian journalist Gavin McInnes, who later distanced himself from the group.

(Laura Morreale)

USA, alert from the Department of Homeland Security: "New possible extreme demonstrations by the ultra-right". The DHS has highlighted how the deterioration of the social climate on a national scale, exacerbated by the assault on Capitol Hill, is fuelling dissent towards the new presidency in those extremist fringes close to radical right-wing circles. The risk is the reiteration of as many episodes of violence. The first steps of the Biden administration in the field of immigration and containment of Covid - reception for thousands of Latin American immigrants; compulsory wearing of masks in public spaces - have, in fact, marked a clear line of demarcation with the Trump administration. This reversal of direction has inevitably sharpened the socio-political contrast between the new Cabinet and the anti-government groups that remain ideologically linked to the hard line espoused by Trump.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Italy, arrest of a 22-year-old man in the Savona area on charges of association for the purposes of terrorism. ‘Jews are the first evil to be eliminated. The Jews were born to destroy humanity’. This is just one of the neo-Nazi and anti-Semitic expressions intercepted by the Digos, which the boy used to publish in a chat group he had created, with the emblematic name of 'New Social Order'. Within this group, the young man carried out some propaganda activities and incitement to crime. Inspired by the American supremacist group Atom Waffen, he had come to promote extreme actions such as ‘school shooting’. The investigations conducted by the Genoa’s Public Prosecutor revealed an imminent risk of emulation of the supremacist massacres occurred in recent years. In one of the conversations intercepted by the investigators, the young man has said: ‘I will really make a massacre. The only thing to do is to die fighting. I have the weapons’.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Vincenzo Battaglia, Davide Shahhosseini and Laura Morreale

INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

COVAX, agreement to distribute vaccines to poor countries. Under the lead of COVAX programme, aimed at ensuring rapid vaccine development and global equitable access, an agreement has been signed for 40 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, already approved through the WHO Emergency Use Listing Procedure, to be allocated to countries eligible for economic support. Under an earlier agreement, another 100 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford University vaccine produced by the Serum Institute of India will be reserved for COVAX, after approval of the vaccine’s quality from WHO, possibly expected as early as mid-February. The first wave of distribution should therefore begin in the first quarter of 2021: an important step, according to UNICEF's Executive Director, but it must be accompanied by monitoring and supporting countries to conduct vaccination campaigns functionally.

UN and climate, current situation and actions to be taken. According to the latest report of the UN Environment Programme, litigation due to polluting practices against governments and companies increased in 2020 globally: this means that awareness of the issue is increasingly widespread, and that the judicial instrument is seen as an important tool in the fight against pollution. A survey conducted by the UN Development Programme (UNDP), administered to more than 1 million people in 50 countries, confirms the increased awareness of climate change in the global public opinion. A large segment of the population, chiefly young people, considers climate change as a global emergency and would like States to undertake more incisive policies. Change is underway, but it will be slow: during the Global Climate Adaptation Summit (CAS), Guterres said that half of the resources allocated will be needed to adapt to the now irreversible damage.

UN Peacebuilding Fund conference, call for funding. The toll of the General Secretariat that finances UN projects in conflict and post-conflict contexts held a virtual conference on January 26, during which Secretary Guterres called on member states to support the $1.5 billion 2020-24 strategy. The plan aims to build preventive measures aware of the mistakes and failures that have characterized some peacebuilding missions in the past; however, in order to be fully implemented, the current scale of donations should be increased: for this reason, Guterres appealed to both States that have already supported the fund in the past, and to those who have not donated so far.

African Union soon to hold the 34th summit of Heads of State and Government. It will take place on February 6 and 7 in the Ethiopian capital, and will focus on “Art, culture and heritage”, a theme that will remain at the top of the Union’s priorities for many events in 2021. In fact, culture is considered a strategic sector for the socio-economic development of the continent, as its valorization will create employment and foster cultural cooperation. The importance of promoting cultural heritage, in all its forms, is reaffirmed by the Agenda 2063 of the African Union, which envisages, at paragraph five, an “Africa with a Strong Cultural Identity, Common Heritage, Values and Ethics”.

Laura Morreale

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Fiorani: Western Europe and European Union

Andrea Angelo Coldani: Asia and the Far East

Arianna Giannino: Central and Eastern Europe and Russian Federation

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Federica Sulpizio: Middle East and North Africa

Federico Brignacca: Human Rights

Ginevra Ricca: South America

Laura Morreale: Terrorism and International Security and International Organisations

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economy and International Finance

Leonardo Cherici: Western Europe and the European Union

Lorenzo Bonaguro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russian Federation, North America

Lydia Milly Certa: Asia and the Far East

Margherita Camurri: Asia and the Far East

Marta Annalisa Savino: North America

Martina Pignatelli: Sub-Saharan Africa, South America

Michele Magistretti: Middle East and North Africa

Samuele Abrami: Middle East and North Africa

Sara Squadrani: Human Rights and International Organizations

Vincenzo Battaglia: Terrorism and International Security

Translated by: Alessandra Fiorani, Andrea Angelo Coldani, Arianna Giannino, Chiara Scuderi, Davide Shahhosseini, Federica Sulpizio, Federico Brignacca, Ginevra Ricca, Laura Morreale, Leonardo Aldeghi, Leonardo Chierici, Lorenzo Bonaguro, Lydia Milly Certa, Margherita Camurri, Marta Annalisa Savino, Martina Pignatelli, Michele Magistretti, Sara Squadrani, Samuele Abrami, Valeria Scuderi, Vincenzo Battaglia.