Framing The World, Numero XLXI

  Articoli (Articles)
  Redazione
  18 January 2021
  37 minutes, 18 seconds


HUMAN RIGHTS

Twitter, Facebook and Instagram suspended Trump's accounts. What started it all and generated a huge stir was the action of Twitter, which first deleted three tweets and then announced the suspension for the next 12 hours of President Donald Trump's account. The triggering events were the protests that led to the assault of the Capitol in Washington on January 6 by Trump supporters. The threats and calls for violence constitute a violation of Twitter's rules, therefore the company acted by adopting its own policy, then followed by the other social networks. The continuation of the incitement to violence then led Twitter to permanently block Trump's access to his account on January 8. The debate that has arisen is about freedom of expression and to what extent social networks have the power to censor or enter into the merits of what is posted by users.

(Sara Squadrani)

USA, first federal execution after 67 years. The Supreme Court authorized the execution of Lisa Montgomery, 52, who later took place on January 13 with a lethal injection. The reintroduction of the death penalty at the federal level took place in July 2020. Since then 11 executions have taken place in the United States. The EU condemned the act, after asking in the past to use clemency towards the woman as the standards of humanity should never be surpassed, especially in the case of mental disorders. Lisa, who had committed a murder in 2004, was a victim of sexual torture in childhood, had mental problems and was delusional - situations that must be taken into account so to take measures that do not further damage a person's dignity. But this is not possible in Trump's America.

(Sara Squadrani)

Lgbt activists and repercussions on human rights defenders. Front Line Defenders' report takes the title of “Defenders at Risk during the covid-19 pandemic” and stands as a complaint for those who stand up for human rights by exposing themselves to threats and violence. Because of the pandemic, the lgbt activist community, in fact, has seen multiple mass arrests, violence and discrimination. But that's not all, in fact, the report highlights mass arrests in the offices of Lgbtiq+ rights organizations, closure of clinics run by activists, sexual assaults and detentions of activists, as well as defamation against activists, described as spreaders of the virus and psychological trauma. Of note is the case of Tanzania, where some the researchers interviewed witnesses to attacks on activists' homes after word spread that they were housing Lgbtiq+ people or sex workers who were at risk of ending up on the streets due to the health emergency.

(Chiara Scuderi)

B'Tselem's denunciation: Israel is an apartheid. It has been published by B'Tselem, the largest Israeli organization for human rights, a report that confirms studies and theories of Palestinian and South African experts stating that Israel is an apartheid regime, both in the occupied Palestinian territories and inside. B'Tselem has been fighting for years affirming the supremacy of Jews over Palestinians, clashing against Israel itself that considers the voice of the association an instrument of propaganda as well as of false inferences based on distorted ideologies. The report states the creation of a system in which Jewish citizens have full rights, while Palestinians are divided into 4 levels with different rights according to where they reside. At the lowest levels of the social ladder are 2 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and ruled by a militant group and 2.7 million Palestinian subjects in the West Bank living under a military regime with no political rights. Yet in 20217, the U.N. Economic and Social Commission for West Asia became the first U.N. body to accuse this apartheid as an international crime.However, the U.N. leadership has openly departed from this area of thought, removing the report containing this accusation from its website.

(Chiara Scuderi)

Abuses in Crimea, the case at the European Court. On January 14, the European Court of Human Rights officially accepted the complaint filed by Ukraine against Russia, accused of being responsible for numerous human rights abuses in Crimea. The decision to deem the complaint partially admissible is very significant, as the Court recognized that Russia has exercised effective control over the Crimean peninsula since 2014. Even in that year, as Russia began to take control of Crimea, Human Rights Watch was on the ground and documented all the abuses of paramilitary groups in the territory. There were numerous human rights violations such as attacks on journalists, disappearances of civilians, kidnappings and torture. It will take some time for the European Court to rule on the case, but this seems to be a first step in promoting Russian responsibility in the violations perpetrated in Crimea.

(Federico Brignacca)

Freedom of expression in Venezuela still at risk. The campaigns of repression and intimidation of the media in Venezuela do not seem to stop, representing a real attack to the freedom of press, expression and access to information of the press organs committed to denounce the violations of human rights of the Venezuelan authorities. According to the Venezuelan organization for human rights PROVEA - as reported by Human Rights Watch - during the first eight months of the state of emergency for the pandemic, about 66 journalists have been arrested in the country. Since January 6, 2021 also began real attacks against media organizations in the territory that have led some to "temporary" closures and others to the seizure of their equipment and headquarters. Harsh also the public denunciation of Michelle Bachelet, High Commissioner for Human Rights: "journalists and human rights defenders critical of the government continue to suffer intimidation and public defamation, there are clear restrictions on freedom of expression".

(Federico Brignacca)

Chiara Scuderi, Federico Brignacca and Sara Squadrani

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

2020, a year of contrasts. 2020 has been a year to remember for American billionaires, especially those who have made their fortunes from the tech sector. In the past 12 months 56 people have joined the club of those whose net worth exceeds $1 billion, bringing the total to 659 individuals. This year, in particular, good fortune has benefited those who have listed their companies on the stock exchange, as new members include the CEOs of Airbnb, DoorDash and Snowflake. It also went very well for who was already a billionaire, with several individuals growing richer by tens of billions, such as Elon Musk (+155 billion), Jeff Bezos (+67 billion), Bernard Arnault (+43 billion). The other side of the coin, however, says that 115 million people fell into absolute poverty, 80% of them in middle-income countries.

New year, old trends. 2021 opens as 2020 ended: political tensions in the US, not so positive macroeconomic data (unemployment increased in the US) and the pandemic causing volatility, but unable to stop the markets from moving towards new records on the belief that recovery is just around the corner. This pushes crude oil prices up - and oil stocks alongside them - but also industrials, financials and automotive companies and, more precariously, travel and leisure. Even the clashes on Capitol Hill could not interrupt this trend, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 surpassing, respectively, for the first time 13,000 and 31,000. However, after Trump's censorship, the prospects of more regulation for big tech are now weighing heavily, with Facebook(-8%) and Twitter (-11%) paying most of the price.

US, meet the Biden Administration. The Georgia election yielded a tie between Republicans and Democrats in the Senate, but Vice President Harris' vote can break the stalemate and help Biden's party pass his bills through. Along with a clearer definition of the administration's economic agenda, this has contributed to the positive sentiment in the markets. In more detail, Biden has already outlined an additional $1.9 trillion aid package and is expected to unveil the green new deal in February to fund an energy transition towards renewables. The hope of the markets is therefore that Biden succeeds in approving these public interventions of trillions, which according to Goldman Sachs would push the GDP to +6.2% this year, but also that he does not succeed in eliminating the tax cuts made by Trump thanks to the defection of a few moderates.

Why markets will crash. Stock exchanges, and particularly the American ones, continue to set new records despite the fact that economic conditions are not improving as much. This is largely due to the constant injection of public money made by governments and central banks, but sooner or later the money will run out and governments will have to manage the resulting debts. Some analysts then point to a Bank of America's indicator that measures institutional investor sentiment, which recently reached its highest level since 1999, just before the dotcom bubble burst. Just like then, tech stocks have been soaring, with some striking examples (Tesla +880%), and irrational behavior has appeared: last week, misinterpreting a tweet from Elon Musk, some investors poured into Signal Advance (instead of the non-publicly traded messaging app Signal), sending it up 6350% in a few hours.

Why markets will NOT crash. Despite the steady increases, markets still have plenty of room to run. First, in the U.S. alone there are over $4 trillion sitting in money market funds waiting for less uncertain times to be invested and when they will be, they will give a further boost to the upside. Second, it is true that technology stocks have skyrocketed, but so have their revenues, boosted by the need for technological solutions to the pandemic. Third, investments other than stocks, such as bonds or commodities, cannot offer the same return, and savings will largely flow right into the stock markets.Last, according to the Dow Theory (named after the founder of the WSJ and the Dow Jones Index) the return of the transportation sector into positive territory for the first time since Q4 2018, despite a pandemic and a trade war with China, signals that economic growth is strong and real.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Mozambique, stop to EU aid. The exodus of refugees fleeing the violence and terrorism of jihadist groups affiliated with ISIS continues unabated. From Cabo Delgado, in the far north of the country, men, women, old people, and children - in total more than 560 thousand people - have taken refuge in Montepuez and Palma, in search of protection. In spite of the terrible situation in the north of Mozambique, President Filipe Nyusi does not want to grant permission for European experts to enter the country. In fact, as stated by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell Fontelles, the Union is only “waiting for the authorization from Mozambique. We are waiting for the green light to send a mission of security experts appointed in November and ready to go”.

Sahel, massacres continue in Niger. On the morning of January 2, more than 100 civilians were barbarously murdered in Tchoma Bangou and Zaroumadaraeye, 7km apart, in the Tillaberi region, the most unstable in the country. A hundred terrorists, riding their motorcycles, opened fire and started shooting at anyone within range. Although there is a certain similarity with the jihadist attacks that have plagued the region for years, the attack has not yet been claimed. It is the largest massacre of civilians that Niger has seen in recent years.

Ghana, here is where the largest single market in the world is located. As of January 1, the African continent has become the largest single market in the world. It is called the “African Continental Free Trade Area” (AfCFTA) and is based in Accra, the Ghanaian capital. It is an agreement brokered by the African Union, to which 54 nations have adhered (only Eritrea has decided not to sign the pact). In particular, this agreement, which could prove to be an excellent launching pad for the takeoff of the continent's economy, requires the adhering countries to reduce duties on goods by 90%. In practice, this would allow the free exchange of raw materials, goods and services across the continent, not to mention the great input that would be given to the creation of new jobs.

Uganda, elections in progress. On Thursday, January 14, general elections took place in Uganda, and more than 17 million citizens were called to the polls to elect a new president. There are 11 candidates in contention, including the outgoing president, Yoweri Museveni, who is running for a sixth term: elected for the first time in 1986, he has already amended the Constitution in his favor in 2005, removing the limit of two terms. The polls were closed at 16:00 (local time), after a day fortunately devoid of clashes, perhaps also "thanks to” the considerable presence of military and police on the streets, as well as the internet blockade that lasted all day.

Kenya, new regulations for Covid tracking. As of January 13, new regulations are in effect for any traveler entering or leaving Kenya. This has been established by the Kenyan Ministry of Health, responsible for surveillance and tracking of Covid-19 infection. This new measure, also supported by the UNDP, aims to certify every passenger entering or leaving the country through the use of a QR code. Despite initial enthusiasm, there are some limitations to entering the country, for which it is mandatory to undergo a PCR test at certified organizations. Only certified organizations are scarce in Europe, putting a limit on tourism and already reduced mobility.

Central African Republic, many people flee after elections. Violence and insecurity related to the general elections held on December 27 in the Central African Republic (CAR) have forced more than 30,000 people to flee and take refuge in Cameroon, in Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo, not counting internally displaced persons. This is compounded by worrying reports of human rights violations inside the Central African Republic, with shortages of water, shelter and access to sanitation.

Martina Pignatelli

NORTH AMERICA

United States, a turbulent beginning of the year. Various events have occurred in recent weeks: the storm on Capitol Hill in Washington D.C. on the 6th January, the congressional certification of Biden's victory, and finally the House's request for impeachment proceedings (the second one) against Donald Trump, who will be leaving office as President in two days. In particular, the attack on Capitol Hill by some extremists, 100 of whom have already been arrested by the FBI, represent a serious episode that undermines the foundations of American democracy. The next President Biden presented a 1.9 trillion dollar plan to fight the Coronavirus pandemic and, above all, the consequent economic crisis. Lastly, the Senate ballots in Georgia ended with Warnock and Ossof winning, thus determining a Democratic majority in favour of Biden.

(Marta Annalisa Savino)

Canada, still spectre of elections. The new year does not start very well for Prime Minister Trudeau. Already in the second week of January, his cabinet has undergone a reshuffling which also involves first level ministries such as Affairs and Foreign Affairs, that of Innovation, Science and Industry, and that of Transport. This sudden change was triggered by the resignation of Navdeep Bains, Minister for Innovation, who will not run again in the next federal elections. His motivation was the desire to be able to spend more time with his family. The Liberal party loses an extremely valid candidate, a symbol of progressivism and the integration of the country. The changes Trudeau wanted were carefully chosen to prevent any possible surprises: early elections are a sword of Damocles.

(Lorenzo Bonaguro)

Marta Annalisa Savino and Lorenzo Bonaguro

LATIN AMERICA

Bolivia, corruption cases. The Bolivian prosecutor's office accused two former ministers from the former government of Jeanine Áñez of buying tear gas at a premium. The prosecutor's office hopes that Interpol will bring the two former ministers back from the USA, where they are now. There appears to be sufficient evidence to arrest the two, who are accused of dereliction of duty and intentions contrary to the Constitution. The investigation was launched in the summer of 2020 at the request of Evo Morales and current Bolivian President Luis Arce, of the MAS. This comes after former anti-drugs chief René Sanabria, who was arrested in 2011 for drug trafficking, was repatriated to Bolivia on 6 January after being detained in Florida. Bolivian prosecutors will ask for Sanabria's imprisonment in a penitentiary.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Chile, the country towards elections and the Constituent Assembly. Two ministers of the current Piñera government have left office to stand as members of the Constituent Assembly to be appointed in April. They are the now former Minister of Agriculture, Antonio Walker, and the former Secretary General of the Chilean Presidency, Cristián Monckeberg. Negotiations between parties to organise lists of candidates have begun in recent days. Chile Vamos, the centre-right coalition, is also organising for the elections in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago. Negotiations are also continuing within the Unidad Constituyente coalition, which brings together centre and centre-left parties.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Colombia, wave of violence. On 11 January Gonzalo Cardona Molina, a ranger of the ProAves Loros Andinos reserve and environmentalist, defender of a particular species of parrot called Loro Orejiamarillo, was found dead. No one had seen him since 8 January. It has been officially clarified that this was a murder and an investigation has been opened. He would be the first environmental activist killed in 2021 according to Indepaz (Instituto para el Desarollo y la Paz). In addition, six activists campaigning for social and human rights issues were also killed on 9 January. According to Indepaz, about 30 percent of Colombian municipalities are characterised by violent dynamics that are not only related to drug trafficking.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Mexico, with the launch of 'The Cartel Project', a programme aimed at filling the gap left by missing journalists. As reported by the Committee to Protect Journalists, since 1992 125 Mexican journalists have been murdered for reasons directly linked to their investigations, a dramatic number that not only places Mexico at the top of the list of the most dangerous places for being a journalist, but has also left behind a precious investigative heritage. The Cartel Project was set up with the aim of pursuing the investigations of those journalists who were murdered in the Latin American country. The project has been coordinated by Forbidden Stories, a non-profit organisation that works to give a concrete follow-up to all those journalistic investigations that have fallen into limbo worldwide. It is an unprecedented project which involves the cooperation of several countries. The first work that The Cartel will try to carry on will be that of journalist Regina Martìnez, murdered in 2012 in the state of Veracruz.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Peru, congressmen under investigation. Three Peruvian congressmen, who are currently under investigation, will participate in the Andean parliamentary elections to be held in April 2021. Two of them are members of Somos Peru, the party with which Martín Vizcarra, a former Peruvian president who would like to remove parliamentary immunity, is running. The other congressman investigated is part of a centre-right party, Podemos Peru. The congressmen in question are accused of being linked to Peruvian criminal organisations such as los gánsteres de la política and los cuellos blancos del puerto. By gaining political office in the Andean parliament, they would gain parliamentary immunity, thus freezing the investigations involving them for at least five years.

(Ginevra Ricca)

Venezuela, the inauguration of the new Assembly. On 5 January, the inauguration of the new National Assembly took place. To confirm his commitment against Maduro, Juan Guaidó held a virtual session of the old Assembly, which the opposition has chosen to let last for another year, even though the Constitution does not provide for this possibility. Meanwhile, Nicolás Maduro's coalition, which currently holds an absolute majority in Parliament, has launched an investigation into alleged crimes committed by the opposition. Guaidó and his supporters are accused of damaging the country's economic, social and political stability. The United States, the European Union and the Lima Group have once again declared their opposition to the newly installed Assembly.

(Ginevra Ricca)

Davide Shahhosseini and Ginevra Ricca

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

China: new evidence gathered by the US seem to suggest that Covid-19 could have emerged at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Th Us Department of State declared they have evidence and that in 2019, and in particular during autumn some researchers were sick and presented symptoms that may be consistant with Covid. This time could show the fact that the pandemic started way before the official date that the RPC communicated to the WHO. Trump has released a statement to back up this hypothesis few days before leaving his official position as President of the States. The official line of the Chinese government has been firm in rejecting this speculation and the US Department of State has not revealed the souce of this information.

(Lydia Milly Certa)

India, the suspension of the adoption of the laws on agriculture and the beginning of the vaccination campaign. After months of severe protests by farmers, the Indian Supreme Court announced the temporary suspension of the entry into force of the three laws concerning the liberalization of agriculture. Prime Minister Modi has announced that on the 16th of January India will start the largest vaccination campaign against Coronavirus in the world, aiming to vaccinate 300 million people by July. The first to receive the vaccine produced in India will be the health staff and the armed forces, followed by the elders and those who have severe diseases.

(Margherita Camurri)

Japan, the new variant of COVID-19 from Brazil and the extension of the state of emergency. This week, a new variant of COVID-19, discovered on four people coming from Brazil, was localized and isolated in Japan. It still has to be determined whether this variant is sensitive to vaccines that are being carried out in the country and whether, like the English one, it is more contagious. Meanwhile, because of the rapid increase in infections, and the difficulties of hospitals in managing the pandemic, the government has decided to extend the state of emergency to a total of eleven prefectures. In addition, Tokyo has reduced the opening hours of bars and restaurants and it has imposed strict restrictions for those who enter into the country.

(Margherita Camurri)

North Korea, new weaponry in development. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country is developing new weapons including a nuclear-powered submarine, tactical nuclear weapons and advanced warheads designed to penetrate missile defense systems. North Korea is pushing ahead with the armaments to deter the United States, despite former President Trump’s strategy of high-level engagement with Pyongyang. Kim's comments were delivered to the country's top political leaders, who are gathered in Pyongyang for the Eighth Workers' Party Congress -- a high-level meeting in which the country's rulers gather to reflect on successes and failures in years past and set an agenda for the future.

(Andrea Angelo Coldani)

South Korea, new ambassador to Tokyo committed to "political" solution to historical conflicts. New South Korean Ambassador to Japan Kang Chang-il stressed his commitment to exploring "political" solutions to a set of historical conflicts between the two countries and fostering a "future-oriented" bilateral relationship. The pursuit of political or diplomatic solutions to the historical issues has made little progress, as Tokyo claims the wartime sexual slavery issue was settled under a 2015 bilateral deal, and forced labor and other issues stemming from its 1910-45 colonization of the Korean Peninsula were settled under the 1965 normalization treaty. Touching on rising tensions with Japan following this month's ruling on the sexual slavery issue, Kang stressed that the two countries should not repeat mistakes that they made in their past handling of historical disputes.

(Andrea Angelo Coldani)

Taiwan and USA: Pompeo will not go to Taiwan despite restrictions on official contacts having been lifted. These restrictions were introduced in the first place to regulate the interaction between US and Taiwanese officials in order to resolve issues with the Beijing government which believes Taiwan is an integral part of the PRC, and therefore opposed any official exchange between the government of Taipei and those of other states. The South China Morning post reports "this is seen as a violation of sovereignty". Pompeo's trip would have been his last as Secretary of State in the now outdated Trump administration. The announcement of the cancellation of the official visit comes following a statement in the official Chinese media in which the latter claimed that such a visit could have sparked a war. Despite this, the US government continues to support Taiwan as a democratic and strong market economy.

(Lydia Milly Certa)

Andrea Angelo Coldani, Lydia Milly Certa and Margherita Camurri

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Greece, agreement on defence and security cooperation. The Greek Government approved an agreement with Israel for the strengthening of its military forces. The purpose of the agreement is to allow the purchase of training aircraft from Israel, especially M-364 aircraft made by the Italian company Leonardo. The deal should be worth $1,6 billion and it has symbolized a turning point in the Greek military strategy, indeed the government of Athens doubled the defence budget compared to 2020. For 2021, EUR 5.5 billion have been allocated. The agreement is also interesting from the point of view of duration, Greek-Israeli cooperation will be a long-term partnership: a horizon of 20 years. From a geopolitical and strategic perspective this new alliance in the Mediterranean seems to be intended to stop Turkish expansionism.

(Alessandra Fiorani)

France, between Coronavirus and avian flu. French duck farms have been transformed in avian flu clusters. While the country is fighting Coronavirus pandemic and is setting new restrictions to combat the spread of Covid-19, from Paris comes the alarm with regards to the avian emergency. The first avian flu case was recorded in December, but today there are about 250 clusters in farms in the south-west of France. In order to reduce the risk of spreading, 400.000 specimens have already been slaughtered, and on 8th January the French Minister of Agriculture announced that another 100.000 ducks will be slaughtered as a preventive measure. According to the Paris administration, the slaughter seems to be the only effective measure.

(Alessandra Fiorani)

Italy, two ministers resign. The leader of Italia Viva, Matteo Renzi, withdrew his party's delegation from the government. Teresa Bellanova, Minister for Agriculture, Elena Bonetti, Minister for Equal Opportunities and the Family, and Ivan Scalfarotto, Undersecretary for Foreign Affairs, have resigned from Giuseppe Conte's government, effectively opening a government crisis. Today and tomorrow the Prime Minister will go to the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate to obtain a vote of confidence and continue with his mandate. In the meantime, Italia Viva has said it is willing to support a new Conte-led government on condition that some points of the programme are renegotiated. In the Senate, the hunt for those responsible for supporting the majority has already begun.

(Leonardo Cherici)

Holland, government falls. Prime Minister Rutte and the members of his government have resigned. The scandal is alleged to be based on the activities of the tax authorities, who accused thousands of Dutch families of fraud in connection with childcare subsidies, without them being able to appeal. The scandal also involved the leader of the Labour Party, then a member of the Grand Coalition, forcing him to resign. The affair is particularly important two months before the elections and could have an impact on the consensus of the parties involved in the scandal.

(Leonardo Cherici)

Leonardo Cherici and Alessandra Fiorani


CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Where are the vaccines for the Balkans? As in the rest of the continent, the Balkan countries have also started the vaccination campaign in recent weeks. The primary recipients are healthcare workers. However, the first dispute against the European Union has already arisen. The Prime Minister of Albania - 20 million inhabitants - Edi Rami said he was disappointed by the attitude of the EU: Brussels left the members discretion to negotiate donations with non-EU countries. In fact, this is not happening, the Balkans risk being left uncovered. If the Commission does not repair the real risk of undermining the stability of the region and compromising diplomatic relations in the years to come, especially with Serbia and Albania.

(Lorenzo Bonaguro)

A scandal hits the Estonian prime minister. Estonian Prime Minister Juri Ratas has resigned and the President Kersti Kaljulaid has accepted. The country is experiencing a large-scale scandal over state loans to a property developer, and the Attorney General's investigation has revealed that prominent members of the prime minister's party are also involved. Ratas has decided to take political responsibility for the situation, but he doesn't seem involved at the moment. "It is really important to me that the Center Party gets its finances in order, and I still think we are on the right track" he told the press. The president has already assigned Kaja Kallas the task of forming a new government.

(Lorenzo Bonaguro)

Joe Biden is about to lead America: it is "no" for Russia. Joe Biden is officially the elected president of the United States of America and this has not been welcomed well by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Joe Biden, former deputy of former US President Barack Obama, immediately presented himself as a "champion of democracy", discussing in his essay ‘‘Why America Must Lead Again’’ his political intentions to promote liberal politics at the level world. This democratic vision does not go well with the form of government instead promoted by the Russian president, who, consequently, read Biden's intentions as an attempt to bring pro-US governments to power and, subsequently, to trigger also in Russia, a change of regime. In response, Putin has created his own narrative around Russian democracy, which has its own traditions of self-government and is not an embodiment of standards imposed from abroad. That said, collaborations and occasional agreements cannot be excluded. The extension of the New Start Treaty on the reduction of US and Russian nuclear warheads, expiring in February of this year, could be the first example.

(Arianna Giannino)

Open Skies Treaty: Russia withdraws. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the withdrawal of the United States has ‘‘significantly upset the balance of interests of the signatory states’’ in a statement, and that Moscow's proposal to keep the treaty alive even without the United States was snubbed by other countries. The Open Skies Treaty is a tool introduced to allow a certain number of unarmed flights through which member countries can gather strategic information from each other. The United States announced its withdrawal from the treaty in May 2020, accusing Russia of repeated violations. What was announced today is a notice: it will take six months before the official withdrawal from the treaty, during which the decision can be reviewed. The United States completed its withdrawal last November.

(Arianna Giannino)

Lorenzo Bonaguro and Arianna Giannino

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Turkey, drought watered down. Although externally the government has tried to present a positive image of the country (the attempt to dialogue with Israel and the Gulf, the launch of the vaccination campaign, more conciliatory tones towards the Euro-Atlantic countries), it is the domestic front that worries President Erdoğan. And the protests of students and academics of the prestigious Boğazici University are emblematic. In fact, triggered by the appointment of "a party man" as rector, the voices of dissent have then redeveloped into forms of civil disobedience aimed at digging a furrow in the ruling party, divided internally between AKP loyalists and ultra-nationalists. Despite the government's attempts to buffer the causes and effects by branding everything as a terrorist threat, opposition parties and socially transversal voices are shedding light on the danger of drought: not only (figuratively) of economic resources but also (real) of “natural resources due to administrative mismanagement”.

(Samuele Abrami)

Syria, who knocks at the door? In recent days the centers of Deir Ezzor and Albu Kamal have been unexpectedly hit by several Israelian raids that would have hit some positions of pro-Assad forces. The relevant aspect, however, is that to break the traditional silence of Tel Aviv have been American intelligence sources, which have claimed the fundamental role of Washington in the success of the attacks on warehouses and military bases. In all likelihood, the message of Donald Trump's outgoing team is also this time in an anti-Iranian function and echoes Pompeo's recent (and dubious?) accusations that Tehran is the real base of Al Qaeda. While the American endorsement of Israel's actions represents no novelty, it is instead necessary to evaluate how this latest operation in the Syrian theater could impact on two hot fronts: the danger of escalation with Iran and the regional polarization in the wake of the Abraham Accords with the Gulf.

(Samuele Abrami)

Libya, new appointments and new steps. After the sensational resignation of the Bulgarian diplomat Nickolay Mladenov, the UN Security Council appointed the former Slovakian foreign minister Jan Kubis as the new head of its mission in Libya. Since March 2020, following Ghassan Salamé's resignation, the leadership role had been held ad interim by his deputy, Stephanie Williams. At the same time, the Farnesina chose the former ambassador to Algiers, Pasquale Ferrara, as its special envoy to the country. Political meetings between the various actors involved in the Libyan conflict are also continuing. The Italian Defence Minister, Lorenzo Guerini, met with the GNA vice-president, Ahmed Maiteeg. The Libyan Forum for Political Dialogue also seems to have reached a new compromise agreement for the appointment of a new executive.

(Michele Magistretti)

Israel, the vaccine race between elections and new agreements. Israel has recently concluded a new defence agreement with Greece worth close to 1.5 billion dollars. The agreement provides for the supply of a number of aircraft and assistance in training in the aviation field for a period of twenty years. In addition to this agreement, there is the one reached with the US administration for the supply of a further 25 F-35s. Meanwhile, the country has now vaccinated almost two million people, having already begun the second dose. In a few weeks, around 20% of the population has been vaccinated and the first signs of containing the epidemic are already beginning to appear, with a slight drop in the number of cases recorded. At the same time, it seems that Fatah and Hamas have reached an agreement for new presidential and parliamentary elections in the West Bank and Gaza, the first in 15 years.

(Michele Magistretti)

Samuele Abrami and Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Cuba back on US list of states “sponsor of terrorism”. A backlash by the Trump administration, announced on Monday 11 January by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. According to the White House statement, the country is said to be a source of “negative interference” in the region, as it provides support and shield to groups that the US considers terrorist, such as the Colombian ENL and FARC, in addition to being an ally of the Venezuelan government. Classified as “sponsor of terrorism” by Reagan in 1982, Cuba had been removed from the list in 2015, as part of the rapprochement process pursued by Obama. Back in 2017, the US had reintroduced trade and movement restrictions, and cut diplomatic personnel. And while the Secretary of State says he wants to support “the Cuban people in their desire for a democratic state”, the reasons for the choice and its timing have been widely criticized: for many, the aim is to complicate relations with Havana before Biden takes office.

(Laura Morreale)

Mali, 4 blue helmets killed in an attack. According to the MINUSMA press release, a military convoy of the mission was attacked on 13 January by unidentified armed assailants after hitting improvised explosive devices. Condemning the attack, Guterres urged the Malian government to shed light on the event and prosecute the attackers, stressing that the killing of soldiers belonging to peacekeeping forces is regarded as a war crime under international law. Established in 2013 and extended at least until 30 June of this year, the UN mission in Mali is considered the most dangerous for the blue helmets: the security situation in the country is very volatile, and the international contingent is perceived as an enemy force by various armed rebel groups.

(Laura Morreale)

Yemen: after Cuba, Houthi rebels added to Washington's black list. After the decision to add Cuba to the list of states "sponsoring" terrorism, Trump’s administration has scored a final blow in its foreign policy, notifying Congress its intention to add the Yemeni rebel group Houthi to the list. The decision, announced by Mike Pompeo, is yet another attempt by the outgoing administration to thwart the upcoming foreign policy agenda of the next presidency. The State Department's move would not only further jeopardise the peace process in Yemen and efforts to deal with the most serious humanitarian crisis of the 21st century - according to the UN sources there have been almost 100,000 - but would also undermine the resumption of dialogue with Iran, the Houthis' main ally in the region. The reopening of diplomatic channels with Tehran on the nuclear issue is, in fact, one of the foreign policy priorities of the new administration.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Indonesia, Abu Bakar Bashir released from prison, he is considered the architect of the 2002 Bali bombings. Bashir, leader of the Sunni movement "Jemaah Islamiya", which is on the UN list of terrorist organisations linked to Al-Qaeda, was sentenced to 15 years in prison in 2011 for having financed training camps in the province of Aceh in northern Sumatra, where members of the cell were indoctrinated to jihad. In spite of the danger that Bashir still represents in terms of extremist proselytism - he himself has never lent himself to any deradicalisation programme during his detention - the lawyers managed to obtain his release, making use of his age-related health problems. Although his conviction was overturned on appeal for lack of sufficient evidence, Bashir is believed to be the mastermind of the October 2002 attacks in the tourist area of Kuta, which killed more than 200 people.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Nigeria, thirteen soldiers killed. On 11 January, thirteen Nigerian soldiers were killed in an ambush in the village of Gazagana, in the north-eastern state of Yobe. The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), an ISIS-affiliated cell that emerged in 2016 from a spinoff of the Boko Haram terrorist group, was blamed for the attack. The Nigerian army said it had "neutralised" numerous jihadists during the clashes and played down the number of casualties reported among the military.

(Vincenzo Battaglia)

Afghanistan, clashes between the armed forces and the Taliban. While the future of Afghanistan is being negotiated in Doha, the level of conflict between the national security forces and the Taliban remains high, with the latter remaining on the offensive. The Afghan Ministry of Defence stated on 15 January that (in the previous 24 hours) 21 provinces in the country had recorded conflicts between the national army and the Islamic group. In addition, the Ministry stated that more than 100 Taliban were killed in these clashes and more than 30 were wounded. Meanwhile, also on 15 January, the US State Department confirmed that the number of its troops in Afghanistan has been reduced to 2,500, as wanted by Donald Trump.

(Vincenzo Battaglia)

Vincenzo Battaglia, Davide Shahhosseini and Laura Morreale

INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

Freedom House, new 2020 report on the state of democracy in the world. The non-governmental organization records the collapse of democratic facades in many countries of Central Europe and the Balkans such as Poland, Hungary and Serbia. The weakness of institutions, the negative influences of Russia and China in terms of non-respect of freedoms and authoritarian governments play a role, as did the failure of the EU - according to the report - with regard to the damage inflicted on the rule of law. Alongside the negative experiences, the movements of citizens themselves in guiding democratic transformations in their states are also recorded, often in conciliation with requests in the environmental field: this is the case of Armenia, Ukraine, Moldova, Macedonia and Kosovo.

(Sara Squadrani)

World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2020 one of the three warmest years on record. This was announced by the WMO on 14 January following the analysis of the five leading international datasets in the study of global temperatures. A natural cooling climate phenomenon called ‘La Niña’ slowed down the heat only at the end of the year with little impact on the overall picture. The United Nations Meteorological Agency also reminded that temperature is only one of the indicators of climate change, and that other factors must be considered such as concentrations of greenhouse gases, ocean heat content, global mean sea level, sea ice extent and extreme events. In any case, the Secretary General of the United Nations, A. Guterres, reiterated the high urgency with which climate change must be addressed.

(Sara Squadrani)

UNICEF: reopening schools should be a priority. This is what Henrietta Fore, Executive Director of the organisation, said in a statement dated 12 January. According to the press release, the prolonged closure of schools will have a negative impact on the future of millions of children, who are losing the opportunity to acquire knowledge and skills. The situation is more dramatic in contexts where schools represent a safe place, providing a barrier against abuse, food insecurity and exploitation. In Fore’s advice, national plans should therefore include school reopening, with differentiated measures based on local infection rates and pressure on health systems.

(Laura Morreale)

ILO, the problems of homeworking: less protection and lower wages. This is what emerges from a report published on 13 January by the ILO, which aims to understand the implications of a phenomenon that is now widespread at global level, due to the restrictions imposed by various governments to contain the pandemic. The available data suggests critical issues in many aspects of homeworking: less regulated work is often more subject to arbitrary conditions by employers, there are less opportunities for trade unions action, workers experience general reduction in wages and effects on gender roles in the household economy. As the number of workers employed from home is likely to increase in the coming years, the ILO aims to raise awareness of the trends concerning it, in order to implement policies aimed at addressing the difficulties detected and establishing a legislative framework of protection for those working from home.

(Laura Morreale)

World Bank Global Economic Prospects: towards a slow recovery? The document, published early in January, forecasts a 4% expansion of the global economy, while warning that strong government action will be needed to counter the pandemic and encourage increased investment. In this perspective, vaccines are regarded as a key tool: the World Bank says that if vaccination campaigns continue at a sustained pace in 2021, recovery could be faster. Governments, though, will need to support a wide range of reforms in debt management, financial policies and support for economies. However, the effects of the crisis on the global economy will be visible for a long time.

(Laura Morreale)

Sara Squadrani e Laura Morreale



Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Fiorani: Western Europe and European Union

Andrea Angelo Coldani: Asia and the Far East

Arianna Giannino: Central and Eastern Europe and Russian Federation

Chiara Scuderi: Human Rights

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Federica Sulpizio: Middle East and North Africa

Federico Brignacca: Human Rights

Ginevra Ricca: South America

Laura Morreale: Terrorism and International Security and International Organisations

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economy and International Finance

Leonardo Cherici: Western Europe and the European Union

Lorenzo Bonaguro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russian Federation, North America

Lydia Milly Certa: Asia and the Far East

Margherita Camurri: Asia and the Far East

Marta Annalisa Savino: North America

Martina Pignatelli: Sub-Saharan Africa, South America

Michele Magistretti: Middle East and North Africa

Samuele Abrami: Middle East and North Africa

Sara Squadrani: Human Rights and International Organizations

Vincenzo Battaglia: Terrorism and International Security



Translated by: Alessandra Fiorani, Andrea Angelo Coldani, Arianna Giannino, Chiara Scuderi, Davide Shahhosseini, Federica Sulpizio, Federico Brignacca, Ginevra Ricca, Laura Morreale, Leonardo Aldeghi, Leonardo Chierici, Lorenzo Bonaguro, Lydia Milly Certa, Margherita Camurri, Marta Annalisa Savino, Martina Pignatelli, Michele Magistretti, Sara Squadrani, Samuele Abrami, Valeria Scuderi, Vincenzo Battaglia.



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