Framing The World, Numero XLX

L'inizio di un nuovo anno per le Relazioni internazionali

  Articoli (Articles)
  Redazione
  04 January 2021
  40 minutes, 14 seconds

HUMAN RIGHTS

Turkey-China relations and Uighur rights. Diplomatic relations between the two Countries, based on a solid relationship of strategic cooperation, aimed at maintaining international security and fighting terrorism, celebrate their 50th anniversary in 2021. The issue of Chinese oppression of the Uighur population of Xinjiang, however, poses a challenge to the relationship. Turkey had never spoken out against Chinese conduct towards the Muslim minority of Xinjiang, avoiding politicizing the fight against terrorist groups in the region. However, on December 30, its foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu addressed the issue for the first time, stating the will to send a delegation to China in order to investigate alleged violations of Uighur rights. Even if Turkey claims it does not want to look at the issue from a political point of view but from the point of view of the violation of human rights norms, this will most likely have repercussions on the relationship between the two Countries.

(Sara Squadrani)

Bosnia, on the brink of a humanitarian emergency for migrants. Thousands of migrants have been wandering in the cold in the north-west of the country for a few weeks. To those coming from the so-called Balkan route are added the evacuees from the Lipa camp, near the city of Bihac. The camp had been closed in mid-December to adapt it to the winter situation, causing protests and the partial fire of the camp. The migrants should have been transferred to another camp inside the city, but it did not happen due to the opposition of the locals. Meanwhile, the northern border is blocked due to the total closure of Croatia, despite the country had received funds from the EU for the management of migration flows, while the Bosnian government does nothing to protect the lives of the refugees. Living conditions are severe, as are xenophobic abuse and violence. IOM and UNHCR, together with the NGOs present in the area, denounce the situation and have few means to effectively intervene.

(Sara Squadrani)

China, it's sentence for 10 young activists. Last 23rd of August, 12 young people had been intercepted by the Chinese Coast Guard after leaving Hong Kong on board a speedboat. On December 30th, 2020 came the sentence from the court for 10 of them, while the other 2 instead will be returned to the authorities. For two of the incriminated, the reason for conviction is "having helped other people to secretly cross the border" and the sentence is 2 and 3 years respectively. For the remaining 8 boys the reason is "having secretly crossed the border" and the sentence is 7 months. The impossibility of choosing their own lawyers for the defense seems questionable, as well as the impossibility of families and journalists to attend the hearing. Amnesty International's Asia-Pacific Director says she is concerned about potential torture of these young political activists and China's recidivism in conducting irregular trials.

(Chiara Scuderi)

Argentina, historic legalization of abortion. The year 2020 ends with a historic news for Argentina after 10 years of struggles: the approval of the law that will allow the termination of pregnancy up to the fourteenth week of gestation. It was approved with 38 votes in favor, 29 against and one abstention. The law provides free abortion services up to the fourteenth week of gestation; after that period, abortion will be considered legal only in case of danger to the life or health of the woman or in case of rape. In addition, health professionals will be required to ensure dignified treatment with full respect for privacy and confidentiality of information, and those who oppose this practice may face criminal sanctions or be excluded from professional activity.

(Chiara Scuderi)

China, freedom of expression still at risk. In China, journalists and activists who have publicly exposed themselves by denouncing the Coronavirus pandemic and criticizing the government continue to be arbitrarily detained. "The detention of journalists and activists will not make China's real problems go away," says Yaqiu Wang, China researcher at Human Rights Watch. In early December, 40-year-old Ou Biaofeng was arrested in Hunan province, guilty of arguing and causing trouble, with a sentence of up to five years in prison. More than a dozen foreign journalists have been expelled by the Chinese government in 2020, and as many are being detained. The Chinese authorities' attempt to control how the coronavirus pandemic is reported outside the country continues, trying to silence independent journalists and using software specialized in censorship.

(Federico Brignacca)

Turkey's new draft anti-terrorism law threatens freedom of association. Concern is growing in Turkey over a draft of a new law to counter terrorist financing that appears to threaten freedom of association. "The Turkish government's new law with the new powers it grants to the Ministry of Interior, hides within it another purpose: restricting the legitimate activities of any non-governmental group it does not like" says Hugh Williamson of Human Rights Watch. The bill, composed of 43 articles, amends seven national laws already in force and was presented urgently on December 18 without any kind of consultation with civil society and organizations that would be affected by this law. "This bill" -- Williamson continued -- "will become a dangerous tool for limiting freedom of association, and the provisions relating to non-governmental organizations should be withdrawn immediately."

(Federico Brignacca)

Chiara Scuderi, Federico Brignacca and Sara Squadrani



ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

Wall Street, are record highs sustainable? The American stock exchanges continue to set new all-time highs despite some data, such as a slight decrease in consumption and an increase in unemployment, would advise caution. A more accurate analysis shows, however, that these gains are not unjustified, first of all, because prices are determined by expected future profits (from 6 months onwards) and not by immediate ones, and vaccines bring with them significant prospects of higher earnings, but secondly also because now the stocks that are "running" are those that have suffered the most during the year and not (or to a lesser extent) those few technology stocks that had seen huge gains in the spring. As proof of the market's solidity, several analysts cite the fact that on December 23, 277 stocks posted all-time highs and that while in November 73% of stocks were reported as 'overbought', by Christmas only 32.4% were.

Markets, between the British variant and Christmas. The appearance of a new variant of COVID-19 (one of the 12,000 already identified) caused substantial declines in the markets which, however, were quickly erased by both reassurances on the efficacy of vaccines and the passage of a major economic aid package in Congress (see below). The prevailing optimism has therefore given rise to the classic 'Santa Claus rally', the period between Christmas and the first days of January that yields positive returns (on average +1.4%) in 3 out of 4 years, and that this year has been more 'nice' than other years, with the S&P 500 rising by more than 3%. The phenomenon is explained, alternatively, by a general feeling of optimism and happiness on Wall Street (being also the period of bonuses...) or by the absence from the market of large institutional investors that leave the market to smaller and more optimistic retail investors.

Asia, China and Japan are soaring. The optimism seen in the American markets seems to be contagious, at least in Asia since Europe remains negative for 2020. Tokyo rose to 30-year highs, although the levels reached at the height of the speculative bubble (1989) are still far away, while Shenzhen is at an all-time high. Tokyo has historically been seen as a safe market in uncertain times and has had one of the best performances in the world in these difficult times, but investors also expected the Japanese market to recover sooner and to a greater extent than Western markets thanks to its strong interdependence with the main economies of the Asia-Pacific region, the least affected by COVID, while Chinese stock exchanges are running precisely in the wake of the strong and rapid recovery of economic activity in China after the March lows.

Washington, there is a deal. After months of negotiations and a last-minute opposition from Trump, Congress approved a new stimulus package for the economy and American families totalling $900 billion, the second-largest intervention plan in history after the first spring package. The bill contains hundreds of spending items, but the most important are those that establish the delivery of a $600 check for those earning less than $75,000 (but with higher limits for couples and families, and which Trump and the Democrats tried to raise to $2000), the extension of the $300/week enhanced unemployment benefit, the more than $300 billion in loans to businesses, and the $82 billion earmarked for education. Also significant are the $25 billion to extend the eviction moratorium, the $15 billion allocated to airline payroll, and another $15 billion for culture and entertainment.

EU-China, a controversial treaty. Seven years is the time it took Europe and China to conclude an investment agreement, a time that reflects both the complexity and importance of the subject and some thorny issues such as the respect for human rights in China, denied to parts of the population, and the position of the United States, which seeks in the EU a buttress to contain Beijing's aggressive trade practices. The agreement improves the conditions of access to the Chinese market for European companies, for example by prohibiting forced technology transfers. For China, on the other hand, in addition to an opening on renewables, the advantages are mainly diplomatic, being able to drive a wedge between the U.S. and EU even though only four weeks ago the EU itself had called on Washington to renew the cooperation in an anti-Chinese key, although Commissioner Dombrovskis believes that the EU has only obtained the same rights contained in the 'Phase 1' trade deal struck by Trump.

Leonardo Aldeghi



SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Nigeria frees 340 students held hostage by Boko Haram. 340 students of the Government Science secondary school kidnapped by Boko Haram earlier this month in the north-western district of Katsina have finally been released. Aminu Bello Masari, governor of the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA), said that a total of 344 students have been released. They were kidnapped by the terrorists and held for almost a week in a forest in the neighbouring state of Zamfara. Despite this, not all the boys have yet been freed, although it seems that none of the hostages have been killed.

Mozambique, jihadist attack on natural gas fields repelled. On the night of 23 December, the Cabo Delgado natural gas fields in the north of the country were attacked by a jihadist militia. The facility, where ENI, ExxonMobil and Total are based, is worth €18 billion, and is therefore one of the strategic areas for Mozambique's economy. This is the second attack in a few weeks, due in part to the logistical and response difficulties of the Mozambican Armed Forces (FADM). Because of the great disorganisation, and after the failure of the Russian mercenaries, the government decided to use the mercenaries of the Dyke Advisory Group (DAG), as well as military aid from the USA and Portugal.

South Africa, virus mutations trigger a second wave of infections. The number of Covid-19 infections in the country, which reached one million on Sunday 27 December alone, is soaring. Minister Zweli Mkhize, who had already confirmed at the beginning of December that the second wave had hit the country, said that for the moment there was no evidence to suggest that the South African variant was more dangerous or contagious than the variant identified in Britain. Indeed, the minister said there was no evidence that 501.V2 was more dangerous, causing increased mortality than the British variant. Meanwhile, local health officials complain of a shortage of beds and medical equipment.

Horn of Africa, Americans deploy their naval force. US Africom, the military command in charge of US operations on the African continent, has announced the deployment of an airborne force in the Horn of Africa, off the coast of Somalia. The deployment of this massive task force, as part of Operation Octave Quartz, began a few weeks ago with the aim of redeploying US units present in Somalia to other locations in East Africa while maintaining pressure against violent extremist groups and support for the armed forces of allied countries.

Niger, 29 candidates vying for presidential election. On Sunday 27 December, 7.4 million people in Niger went to the polls to vote in the presidential elections. There are 29 candidates in the running, including Mohamed Bazoum, the dauphin of outgoing President Mahamadou Issoufou and the candidate chosen by the coalition currently in power, the Parti Nigérien pour la Démocratie et le Socialisme (PNDS-Tarayya). A possible runoff is already scheduled for 20 February 2021. Despite the concerns, there were no major incidents in the 26,000 polling stations opened for the occasion, but on the other hand the turnout was not particularly significant.

Mali, report on human rights violations released. On 28 December, MINUSMA, the United Nations Mission in Mali, released the official report of its investigation into human rights violations and abuses perpetrated between 10 and 13 July 2020, during the suppression of protests against President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. The document certifies that during the intervention of the armed forces, 14 protesters, including 2 children, were killed as a result of excessive violence by the armed forces. According to the report, at least 200 people, including seven children, were arbitrarily arrested and detained in Bamako during the three days of protests. MINUSMA urged the Malian authorities to conduct independent investigations.

Martina Pignatelli

NORTH AMERICA

United States, the TikTok issue and the votes on 5 January 2021. The Trump administration has appealed to a federal court decision which allowed the Chinese app TikTok to continue operating in the US, in line with the thought that this app would be a danger to US national security. Then we wait for the 5 January votes on the two Senate ballots in Georgia to see who will have a majority between the Democratic and Republican parties: Biden supports candidates Jon Ossof and Raphael Warnock, while Trump sustains Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.

(Marta Annalisa Savino)

Canada, doubts about the AstraZeneca vaccine. The Canadian vaccination plan already seems well planned, it is estimated that coverage will be almost total by September 2021. But to further improve the operation, the country is trying to diversify vaccines and AstraZeneca is promising especially to facilitate the logistical aspect, without taking into account lower production costs and therefore lower final prices of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. However, the approval encountered the same problems encountered by the EMA. The data provided by the production company are not enough for the authorities to issue the approval, despite the procedure having been going on since October. In the meantime, the use of the Moderna Inc. vaccine was decided.

(Lorenzo Bonaguro)

Mexico-China strategic association. After a long conversation with state councilor Wang Yi, foreign secretary Marcelo Ebrard declared that Mexico will expand the so-called strategic association to fight Covid19. The Obrador government has already linked itself to Beijing with the purchase of 35 million doses of the Chinese Cansino vaccine, and the same number of Pfizer-BioNTech, as announced by the health secretary Alcocer. The logistical organization set up is accused: the government has already announced that there will be a delay in the start of administration to health personnel.

(Lorenzo Bonaguro)

Marta Annalisa Savino and Lorenzo Bonaguro



SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina, abortion law passed. On the morning of December 30, 2020, the Senate approved the bill legalizing abortion, despite opposition from the Catholic Church, evangelical Christians and the center-right coalition Juntos por el Cambio. In total there were 38 votes in favor, 29 against and one abstention. While in the past the project was supported by the opposition, this year the bill was endorsed directly by the president Alberto Fernández. In particular, the vote in the Senate held everyone in suspense because the upper chamber usually over-represents the conservative north of the country. This time, however, the bill passed because some senators, who were previously anti-abortionist, voted in favor.

Bolivia, large gas field discovered. The Bolivian government has unveiled the discovery of a large gas field located in the southeastern part of the country. The government aims to exploit this reserve as well by 2021. Bolivia is a country that exports between 16 and 14 million cubic meters of natural gas to Argentina and Brazil: in 2019, these exports accounted for 79.9% of revenue. The exploration and drilling project so far has cost $74 million: concerning these new wells, the operation was carried out by Shell, Repsol and Pan American Energy, belonging to Great Britain, Spain and Argentina, respectively.

Brazil, the mayor of Río de Janeiro arrested. On December 22, the mayor of Río de Janeiro, Marcelo Crivella, was arrested for corruption. This represents a major blow to the current government, which had made the fight against corruption one of its priorities. Crivella responded to the press who interviewed him by declaring that he was the victim of an act of political persecution. The police also arrested other people, close to the now former mayor, who worked with him but had no official position. Crivella's term of office was already expiring, as he was defeated by Eduardo Paes in the November 2020 municipal elections. Until December 31, the day Crivella's term expired, Jorge Felipe, president of the Cámara de Concejales of Río de Janeiro, temporarily assumed power as mayor.

Chile, protests and future elections. Clashes between police and protesters continue in Chile. During the latest procession on Monday, December 28, 2020, participants again demanded the release of those arrested in previous clashes. Meanwhile, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet signed a letter of support for the candidacy of Paula Narváez as leader of the Socialist Party for the upcoming presidential elections. The letter refers to the ex-minister as a natural continuation of Bachelet's presidency and stresses the importance of the need to achieve gender parity in government institutions. Paula Narváez has gained strength in the PS compared to other aspirants such as Álvaro Elizalde and Heraldo Muños.

Ecuador, the measures against Covid. While Ecuador has begun testing one of the vaccines produced in China on thousands of volunteers, the International Monetary Fund has approved sending loans of 2,000 million dollars to the Latin American country, in order to combat the economic crisis aggravated by the pandemic. This plan is part of a larger project that foresees the disbursement of around 6,500 million dollars that will be made available over the next two and a half years. The International Monetary Fund has expressed satisfaction with the reforms implemented by the local government to combat corruption and make the administration more transparent. According to the IMF, Ecuador appears to be on the road to economic recovery.

Venezuela, Maduro's accusations against Duque. Nicolás Maduro said he denounced Iván Duque's latest statement on Venezuelan immigrants at the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. Indeed, Duque declared that immigrants from Venezuela who do not possess dual nationality or who are not legal will not have access to the anti-Covid vaccine, which is being distributed and administered in many South American countries just these days. In addition, the Venezuelan president stressed that he has never discriminated against Colombians living in Venezuela. The government of Caracas has just signed an agreement with Russia for the purchase of 10 million doses of the vaccine Sputnik V.

Ginevra Ricca

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

South Korea, the ‘artificial sun’ and the peak of Coronavirus cases. Scientists from Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) have managed to keep an ‘artificial sun’ at a temperature of 100 million degrees for twenty seconds. Breaking all records, the event marked an important step forward for the research on nuclear fusion, which in the future may help reduce the use of fossil fuels. Shortly before Christmas, the government reported the first cases of the country’s British variant of Covid-19 and reacted by blocking flights from the United Kingdom. The latest wave of Coronavirus is strongly hitting South Korea, which recently reported a record of forty victims and more than a thousand infections in one day.

(Margherita Camurri)

North Korea, the threat to the minister of Seoul and the economic recovery plans. South Korea’s foreign minister has expressed doubts regarding the veracity of declarations of North Korea, which claims that the country has not recorded any cases of Covid-19. Kim Jong-un’s sister threatened the Seoul minister by announcing that his words ‘for which she may have to pay’ will not be forgotten. Meanwhile, Kim Jong-un declared his intentions to implement economic recovery plans for 2021, after the country was hit by a sharp decline in GDP (8.5%), especially due to the closure of the borders with China which is the most important trading partner of Pyongyang.

(Margherita Camurri)

China, the investment agreement with the EU and the new year speech. In the past few days, President Xi Jinping and the leaders of the European Union have concluded the negotiations of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, which regards commercial investments between the two blocks. The agreement, which still has to be ratified by the European Parliament, is not only economically important, but it is also relevant from a political point of view, since it will contribute to the tightening of the relations between China and Europe. In his new year speech, Xi Jinping described 2020 as an ‘extraordinary year’, praising the ‘heroism’ the citizens have shown in the fight against the Coronavirus.

(Margherita Camurri)

Tokyo, olympic games are at risk. When the head of japan's International Olympic Committee said the Tokyo Games would prove the world's victory against coronavirus, he probably hadn't thought about the implications of this claim. Today's debate on this issue is about the idea that it is not a wise choice to hold the Olympic Games when there is still no certainty about vaccines in Japan. In fact, the country has not yet approved and administered vaccines as many others around the world have done. The debate raises many complexities: the main question is whether it is worth taking risks and opening up Japan to people from different countries; moreover, the first to receive the vaccine should be nurses and doctors, but athletes may have priority. Furthermore, it is still impossible to guarantee that the distribution of vaccines will take place without problems, as Europe has shown with the difficulties of the supply chain. In addition, games participants are not required to get vaccines and spectators coming from other countries will probably be required to download a contact-tracing app.

(Lydia Milly Certa)

India, Minister Harsh Vardhan declares the vaccine will be free in India. These days the government is conducting a vaccination dry run across all the states of India. The aim is to check whether the planning and implementation of the vaccination program will be fine or, if not, whether these tests will help identify problems in advance, so that a solution can be found. The feedback, coming from each State of the Union, will then be collected and included in the vaccination guidelines. People will receive free vaccines in order of priority. First core healthcare and frontline workers, then other categories that the government is still in the process of identifying.

(Lydia Milly Certa)

Lydia Milly Certa and Margherita Camurri



WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

European Council and the European Peace Facility. In the context of the agreements for the multi-annual budget of the Union, for the period 2021-2027, the Member States reached a political agreement regarding the adoption of the European Peace Facility. With this instrument the Union will finance investments in the field of European defence and security. The budget available is equal to EUR 5 billion "off-budget", that each Member State has to contribute to finance through annual payments. The Facility will allow the EU to achieve peace, to prevent conflicts and pursue international security and stability. This instrument can be used in crises and conflicts both within the common European area and in external actions, where European States ordinarily cooperate with international and non-European organisations.

(Alessandra Fiorani)

European Union, agreement with London. The European Union and the United Kingdom have reached an agreement that will conclude the transitional phase of Brexit. The close negotiations of recent weeks have borne fruit, as well as the tense situation that had arisen over the Channel following the discovery of the 'British variant' of Covid-19. The deal provides for a free trade agreement on goods, but not on financial services. In addition, European fishermen will have access to British waters for the next five years, with a gradual reduction in their fishing quota. As far as the level playing field is concerned, the UK can apply its own rules, but these must not harm competition with the EU. If this happens, an 'arbitration mechanism' will be activated. Many other issues are postponed to future negotiations

(Leonardo Cherici)

Croatia, earthquake and the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. On Tuesday 29 December, a series of powerful aftershocks rocked some Croatian villages following a magnitude 6.4 earthquake. It was recorded as the strongest earthquake in history to have hit Croatia, in fact the violent earth tremors were also felt in Bosnia, Slovenia, Austria and Italy. The European Union intervened immediately and the President of the EU Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, promptly activated the European Civil Protection Mechanism. This organization will provide assistance and help to the Croatian people and will send resources to Zagreb, including: winter tents, electric stoves, beds, sleeping bags and containers.

(Alessandra Fiorani)

European Union, the Portuguese Presidency begins. After the six-month German presidency, it will be the turn of the Prime Minister of Portugal, Antonio Costa, to take over the leadership of the Council of the European Union. In a letter addressed to EUROACTIV Costa indicates what his main target will be. First and foremost will be economic and social recovery, with the effective implementation of the Next Generation EU. The emphasis will be on digital and sustainability, in line with the German presidency and the European Commission. Costa also wanted to emphasise the geopolitical dimension, arguing the need for greater strategic autonomy to be realised in the future EU-India summit. Finally, the Portuguese presidency will give attention to the social issue, ensuring that the digital and environmental transition does not leave anyone behind.

(Leonardo Cherici)

European Union, vaccinations begin. On 27 December, the European vaccination campaign against Covid-19 officially began. The date has already been renamed 'V-Day' and has been greeted with hope by all European governments and the Commission. It will now be up to the individual countries to organise the campaign in detail, but the aim is to reach a significant threshold by the end of the summer. There are fears for the Italian situation, where the government is going through a period of crisis that seems to be slowing down the executive's action even in other important fields such as the Recovery Plan.

(Leonardo Cherici)

Leonardo Cherici and Alessandra Fiorani

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Covid-19: still cases of denial in Russia. A year after the discovery of the virus that has immobilized the whole world, there are still people who deny its existence. This is the case of Nikolai Romanov, known as Father Sergiy, controversial Orthodox priest who denied the covid and in the first months of 2020 became known in the news precisely for having denied the existence of the Coronavirus pandemic and for having protested against the closure of churches during the lockdown decided by Moscow. In September the Orthodox Church had expelled him for his refusal not to celebrate mass, as reported by the Guardian, but already in June Father Sergiy had taken control of a women's monastery near Ekaterinburg. In December, the police raided the convent in the Ural region where Father Sergiy had holed up, arresting him. The now former priest, among other things, is also accused of instigating suicide.

(Arianna Giannino)

Russia, Covid-19: errors in the calculation of the victims. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister revealed that more than 80% of the excess deaths this year are linked to Covid-19, which would mean that his death toll is three times higher than previously reported. Excess deaths are the difference between the total number of deaths recorded and the average of previous years for the same period. Official figures say 55,827 people have died from Covid-19 in Russia. Russia has been criticized for calculating its official deaths from Covid-19 based on the number of post mortem examinations listing coronavirus as the leading cause of death. However, this means that other deaths related to Covid-19, which have not listed it as the leading cause of death, will not have been included. The new numbers indicate that the coronavirus death toll in Russia may be the third highest in the world, after the United States with 335,000 deaths and Brazil, which had 192,000, according to a trial from Johns Hopkins University. More than 3.1 million infections have been reported in the country.

(Arianna Giannino)

Eastern Europe vaccinations start. Symbolic vaccinations have also started in Eastern Europe, a prelude to the serious inoculation plan among the most fragile categories, the elderly and octogenarians in particular or younger people suffering from pathologies at risk and health workers. The distribution of doses purchased by the European Union will be disposed of weekly in the coming months, at least until March. The number of doses will be commensurate with the population of the individual countries. Waiting for the approval of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which would greatly facilitate the whole process, especially in the Balkan countries, which have already struggled from a health point of view.

(Lorenzo Bonaguro)

Earthquake hits Croatia. On 29 December a magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck Croatia, with an epicenter 50 km south of the capital Zagreb. Seven dead, thirty wounded and two thousand houses destroyed. In Slovenia there was little damage, but the Krsko nuclear power plant was shut down as a precaution. The European Civil Protection Mechanism was promptly set in motion, assisted by the Red Cross, the Crescent Moon, the Copernicus emergency management service and finally the European Coordination Center. Aid has also come from many other European countries and beyond. The earthquake inflicted a further wound on a country already heavily affected by the epidemic.

(Lorenzo Bonaguro)

Lorenzo Bonaguro and Arianna Giannino

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Algeria, Tebboune returns home. Following the constitutional referendum which, despite having registered a very low turnout, gave a positive outcome to proceed with the changes made to the constitution, the new year in Algeria opened with the signature of President Tebboune with which the text has finally become law. The constitutional revision, according to the president, reflects the demands made by the Algerian population since the deposition of Bouteflika. The wait for ratification was imposed by the health conditions of the president, who had moved to Germany to be assisted in the fight against covid-19. Precisely in view of the fight against the pandemic spread, Algeria will purchase the Russian vaccine Sputnik V at less than 10 dollars per dose. Finally, comes the news of the acquittal of Said Bouteflika (brother of the former president), two former heads of intelligence and the political leader of a left-wing party by the military court of appeal of Blida; all answered to the charge of conspiracy against the State.

(Federica Sulpizio)

Tunisia, restrictive measures are joined by the extension of the state of emergency. Following the news of new variants of covid-19 coming from Great Britain, Australia and South Africa, the Tunisian government has decided to suspend flights with these Countries. While waiting for the Pfizer vaccines to become fully operational, the Country has extended its curfew until January 15. At the same time, Tunisian Environment Minister Mustapha Aroui has been arrested, accused of attempting to import domestic and hospital waste from Italy in clear violation of Tunisian environmental laws. In addition, the state of emergency - in effect since 2015 and scheduled to expire on December 26, 2020 - was extended in the country until June 23, 2021, giving until that date exceptional powers to Tunisian security forces and widens the mesh of state control. After the normalization of relations between Israel and neighboring Morocco, the Tunisian foreign minister made it clear that his country has no intention doing the same.

(Federica Sulpizio)

Turkey, the dragon’s embrace. Our opening in the human rights section highlighted the importance of the Uighur issue in Turkish-Chinese relations. But what are the basis and possible (geo)political implications? First, with Ankara cut off from the European concert for the anti-Covid vaccine and thus forced to look to the East, many have pointed out how the delivery of millions of doses of “Sinovac” from Beijing may be conditioned by Chinese pressure to sign the extradition agreement. To this is added a more strategic component, with Turkey representing not only a fundamental crossroads of the “New Silk Road”, but also an important hub of commercial and industrial investments of Chinese companies. Finally, compared to past years, Erdoğan’s AKP must now coexist with and satisfy the demands of the government’s allies, eurasianists, anti-NATO and with a certain attraction for Moscow and Beijing.

(Samuele Abrami)

Syria, the unknown destiny of the Kurdish pawn. Since weeks the Free Syrian Army (FSA), pro-Turkish and anti-Assad, has resumed attacks in the northern area near Ain Issa. Its position is of absolute importance for both Ankara and the anti-regime forces. First of all, because it is one of the entrances of the M4 highway, a strategic corridor towards the main Syrian centers. Secondly, because the area would represent an additional piece to the so-called north-eastern safe zone, a de facto pro-Turkish enclave and military outpost against the Arab-Kurdish SDF militias. These militias, however, are also in the grip of the Moscow-Damascus duo, which could take advantage of their role to achieve objectives more suited to the interests of the central government than of the minorities. Although the current uncertainties from Washington prevent drastic developments, this impasse could prove to be a further stumbling block in the resolution of the conflict.

(Samuele Abrami)

Israel, eternal return: it is now official, after the last vote: the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, is dissolved and thus leads the Country to yet another early election, the fourth in the last two years. In the meantime, Israel rivals the major world powers in the vaccine race. The Country has now vaccinated more than 10% of its population. This incredible result is due to the efficiency of the national health system, aided by the decisive support of the army. The speed is also due to the fact that the government had decided to pay a higher price for doses of the vaccine, in order to secure more of it before other Countries did. This decision and the speed of the vaccination campaign can also be read as an attempt by Bibi to credit himself with the success of the latter in view of the elections, scheduled for 23 March.

(Michele Magistretti)

Libya, new initiatives and sudden surprises: just a few days before his appointment, the former Bulgarian foreign minister, Mladenov, resigned from his post as head of the UN mission for unspecified "family reasons". The Bulgarian politician was considered by some to be too close to the UAE and the diplomat Zenenga, coming from below the Sahara and therefore very sensitive to the conditions in Libyan detention camps, is also disliked in some Libyan circles. In recent weeks, however, the level of verbal confrontation between Turkey and General Haftar has risen. Meanwhile, Egypt seems intent on changing its strategy towards the Tripolitan GNA. After years, a delegation from Cairo went to Tripoli and met the foreign minister, Mohamed Taher Siala, and the interior minister, Fathi Bashaga.

(Michele Magistretti)

Egypt, foreign relations. As an avowed supporter of Haftar and his military campaigns for the past six years, it is surprising that the end of last year was marked by talks between senior Egyptian security officials and Libyan GNA officials; the meeting was described as "fruitful and constructive" by Bashagha, Minister of the Interior of the Tripoli government. On the other hand, tensions continue with Ethiopia over the issue of the dam on the Blue Nile, a source of great concern for al-Sisi's Egypt, which summoned the highest Ethiopian diplomat in Egypt to address the issue. Meanwhile, Sudan - after the overthrow of former President Omar al-Bashir - has joined forces with Egypt to crack down on the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremist groups in a joint security effort. Finally, Egypt's State Prosecutor, Hamada al-Sawy, shattered any slim hope of cooperation with Italy by rejecting the Italian judiciary's accusations regarding the Regeni case, denying the involvement of the five Egyptian security agents in the torture and death of Giulio Regeni.

(Federica Sulpizio)

Samuele Abrami, Federica Sulpizio and Michele Magistretti



TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Sudan, after 27 years Khartoum is no longer on the American black list. The US embassy in Khartoum announced the end of the label of ‘supporter of terrorism’, with which Sudan have been branded by Washington since 1993. The US Embassy in Khartoum, through a post on its Facebook page, dated 14 December 2020, reported the notification by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, which officially sanctioned the revocation of the designation of the African country as a ‘state sponsor of international terrorism’. The Clinton administration, four years after the coup d'état of General Omar-al-Bashir, himself considered very close to various terrorist groups operating in the region, opted for a definitive freeze on relations, even going so far as to impose tough economic sanctions. With the dismissal and subsequent arrest of al-Bashir, following the massive popular uprisings a year ago, the White House resumed talks with the new transitional government, in order to achieve a definitive normalisation of diplomatic and trade relations.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Pakistan, terrorist attack in Belucistan: seven soldiers murdered. The soldiers were at a checkpoint in the city of Harnai, when they were surprised by an armed group that opened fire on them. According to the authorities in Islamabad, the attackers belonged to the Balochistan Liberation Army, a separatist group that has been claiming independence in the region for decades, frequently resorting to attacks and reprisals against the Pakistani armed forces. One of the reasons that makes Belucistan a strategically important region and coveted by various independence factions is the presence of energy resources such as gas and coal. The attack has also exacerbated the disagreements with New Delhi. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, at the commemoration of the seven soldiers, said that it would be the neighbouring country and, at the same time, historic rival the main ‘sponsor’ of the separatists.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Afghanistan, journalist victim of an attack. On 1 January, Besmullah Adel Aimaq, a journalist and human rights activist, was shot dead in the western province of Ghor. No group claimed responsibility. The dynamics of Aimaq's killing are quite similar to those of recent attacks against other reporters and activists. For example, on 21 December, Rahmatullah Nekzad, director of the journalists' union in the eastern province of Ghazni and former contributor to al-Jazeera and Associated Press, was shot dead by an attacker while returning to his home. In the last two months, besides the two cases mentioned above, three other journalists have been killed in similar circumstances in Afghanistan.

(Vincenzo Battaglia)

Nigeria, Boko Haram strikes on the evening of 24 December. Boko Haram militants carried out an armed attack against a Christian village in the town of Chibok, in Borno, on Christmas Eve. According to Agence France Presse, seven people were killed in the ambush and the terrorists looted food supplies and set fire to several houses. Moreover, according to some witnesses, the commando kidnapped a young girl. It was in Chibok that Boko Haram carried out the maxi-abduction of 276 schoolgirls in 2014, an event that caused an international sensation. Since then, the Nigerian authorities have intensified their control in the area, but despite this, the jihadist group has continued to attack the city of Chibok and the surrounding areas.

(Vincenzo Battaglia)

North Macedonia, eight arrested for terrorism. The suspects, all men between 21 and 32 years old, are accused of ‘creating a terrorist organisation’ of ideological inspiration close to IS with the aim of carrying out attacks in the country. One of those arrested had already been convicted in the past for terrorist activities linked to the Islamic State. Several weapons and ammunition attributed to the group were found in a rural location near the city of Kumanovo, in the north of the country. Last September, the Macedonian police had arrested three suspects and the new arrests are probably linked to the same terrorist cell. It is not known whether the terrorist who carried out the Vienna attack on 2 November had links to the same organisation.

(Laura Morreale)

Eastern Syria, attack attributed to ISIS strikes a bus. According to reconstructions, the vehicle was stopped at a false checkpoint set up by jihadist combatants on the road connecting Deir Ezzor and Palmyra. The exact number of deaths is not known, the official governmental information agency that reported the news declared 25, but the budget is 37 according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. While information close to the Assad government spoke of civilians killed, other sources not associated with the Damascus regime agreed that the bus was carrying soldiers of the pro-government forces, who were probably leaving the area for a holiday. Two other buses reportedly managed to escape the attack. It is allegedly the most important terrorist act that ISIS has carried out in months.

(Laura Morreale)

Vincenzo Battaglia, Davide Shahhosseini and Laura Morreale



INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

UN, New Year messages from Secretary General A. Guterres and Assembly President V. Bozkir. “A year of trials, tragedies and tears. But a New Year lies ahead. And with it, we see rays of hope”. With these words, the United Nations Secretary General greets 2020. Despite having been a painful year, the message focuses on the unity and solidarity that countries have shown and that they will have to demonstrate in 2021 to build peace between peoples and with nature, address the climate crisis, stop the spread of COVID-19, and make 2021 "a year of healing". Equally positive is the message from the President of the General Assembly, who urges to work together to build peace, defend human rights and uphold the dignity of every person, as well as to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

(Sara Squadrani)

ILO, 2021 is the International Year for the Elimination of Child Labour. Following the universal ratification of Convention No. 182 on the worst forms of child labor (1999) promoted by the International Labour Organization and which took place in July 2020, the United Nations General Assembly unanimously adopted a resolution declaring the 2021 ‘International Year for the Elimination of Child Labour’. Thus begins the year for the ILO, which has been given the mandate for the implementation of the UN resolution. The goal is to implement Convention No. 182, which has filled an important regulatory gap in the protection of children’s rights, by eliminating all types of forced labour, slavery, child trafficking, and the recruitment of child soldiers by 2025.

(Sara Squadrani)

WFP, food distribution in two refugee camps in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. On 23 December 2020, the distribution of a month’s supplies of food took place. The operation was conducted by the World Food Program (WFP), together with the UNHCR and the Ethiopian Agency for Refugee and Repatriate Affairs (ARRA) and in coordination with Federal authorities. Mai Ayni and Adi Harush camps host 13,000 and 12,170 Eritrean refugees respectively. Given the recent instability in the Tigray and the lack of essential services suffered by the population, this is an operation of extreme necessity that will have to be repeated and further enriched to ensure the survival of the refugees.

(Sara Squadrani)

Covid-19 vaccines, will there be a universal distribution plan? The WHO has approved the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine through the Emergency Use Listing (EUL) procedure, established to ensure the distribution of new and unlicensed treatments as fast as possible. According to WHO, this will allow UNICEF and other international organisations to purchase doses of the vaccine more quickly to carry out vaccination campaigns in countries with difficult socio-economic conditions. However, universal access to the vaccine is still far from being a reality: the Pfizer/BioNTech production for 2021 is almost completely booked by the EU, US, China, Canada and UK, while the other 44 vaccines being tested by other pharmaceutical companies may not be available in the short term. Last month, a group of developing countries asked the WTO to ban patents on Covid-19 vaccines to make them more affordable, but their request was opposed by the EU and other wealthy countries.

(Laura Morreale)

General Assembly approves 2021 UN budget. The Assembly's Fifth Committee, which is in charge of administrative and financial matters, approved a $3.231 billion budget for the organisation’s activities in 2021. The plan received the favourable vote of all member states except the US and Israel. Differently from the usual practice, the funds were only allocated on an annual basis and not on a two-year basis. Of the allocated funds, more than 700 million will go to the 40 UN special political missions in various parts of the world. The same session also voted on the Third Committee's recommendations on various issues such as human rights violations, combating racial discrimination, the law of the sea, disarmament and telecommunications.

(Laura Morreale)

With the end of the year, UNAMID mandate comes to an end. On 31 December, the hybrid peacekeeping mission coordinated by the United Nations and the African Union in Darfur officially ended its mandate, as stipulated in resolution 2559 approved by the Security Council on 22 December. Within six months, all military personnel involved in the mission will be discharged and their equipment withdrawn. The mission, which was set up in 2007 following the conflict in Darfur, had already been subject to funding cuts for some years: now, the CoS believes that the commitment of the Sudanese transitional government bodes well for a stabilisation of the country. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and AU President Moussa Faki assured in a joint statement that the two organisations would continue to support Sudan in implementing the government’s peace plan.

(Laura Morreale)

Sara Squadrani and Laura Morreale



Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Fiorani: Western Europe and European Union

Andrea Angelo Coldani: Asia and the Far East

Arianna Giannino: Central and Eastern Europe and Russian Federation

Chiara Scuderi: Human Rights

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Federica Sulpizio: Middle East and North Africa

Federico Brignacca: Human Rights

Ginevra Ricca: South America

Laura Morreale: Terrorism and International Security and International Organisations

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economy and International Finance

Leonardo Cherici: Western Europe and the European Union

Lorenzo Bonaguro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russian Federation, North America

Lydia Milly Certa: Asia and the Far East

Margherita Camurri: Asia and the Far East

Marta Annalisa Savino: North America

Martina Pignatelli: Sub-Saharan Africa, South America

Michele Magistretti: Middle East and North Africa

Samuele Abrami: Middle East and North Africa

Sara Squadrani: Human Rights and International Organizations

Vincenzo Battaglia: Terrorism and International Security



Translated by: Alessandra Fiorani, Andrea Angelo Coldani, Arianna Giannino, Chiara Scuderi, Davide Shahhosseini, Federica Sulpizio, Federico Brignacca, Ginevra Ricca, Laura Morreale, Leonardo Aldeghi, Leonardo Chierici, Lorenzo Bonaguro, Lydia Milly Certa, Margherita Camurri, Marta Annalisa Savino, Martina Pignatelli, Michele Magistretti, Sara Squadrani, Samuele Abrami, Valeria Scuderi, Vincenzo Battaglia.



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