Framing the World, Numero LV

HUMAN RIGHTS

Human Rights Watch, a report on the first year of the pandemic. Entitled “Future Choices. Charting an Equitable Exit from the Covid-19 Pandemic”, it is the HRW report published on March 4, which tells about how the Covid-19 pandemic has caused multiple human rights violations. On the one hand, the restrictive measures launched by governments have had social and economic repercussions, but they have also been used as a pretext to acquire more power and limit human rights - the report argues. On the other hand, the health emergency has exposed the structural limits of the systems for protecting citizens' rights. One year after the start of the crisis, with the circulation of vaccines, state authorities are urged to follow the fundamental principles to be respected when implementing restrictions on fundamental rights: proportionality, necessity and legality.

(Sara Squadrani)

Myanmar, the response to anti-coup protests continues to be violent. On 3 March, 39 demonstrators were killed by the police, who also acted with the detention of civilians, including representatives of the National League for Democracy. Two of them later died in prison from the reported injuries: Khin Maung Latt and Zaw Myat Linn. In addition, the military junta has revoked the license of 5 media outlets in order to crack down on the dissemination of pro-protest information. On March 10, the UN Security Council condemned such violence against peaceful protesters for the first time. Finally, the Council reaffirmed its support for the people of Myanmar, and their commitment to the protection of sovereignty, political independence, territorial integrity and unity.

(Sara Squadrani)

Tunisia, shipwreck of two boats. On 9 March, the Tunisian authorities recovered the bodies of 39 migrants, including 4 children, and rescued 165 people after the sinking of two boats off the coast of Sfax, east of Tunisia. Further research is ongoing. The boats had left the night before, but it is not yet clear how the shipwreck occurred. What is certain is that the two boats were in poor condition and overloaded, and that the origin of the migrants on board is sub-Saharan. Tunisia is therefore confirmed as one of the countries from which migrants can reach Italy, while their number is confirmed to be on the rise.

(Sara Squadrani)

Algeria, declassification of documents on the independence war. On 9 March, French President E. Macron accepted requests from the academic community for accessing currently classified documents dating back more than 50 years. The declassification process will concern documents up to and including 1970, including those relating to the Algerian war. This step is in continuity with the recognition of French responsibility for torture incidents committed in Algeria, recognition which took place in 2018 and in the first days of March 2021. Alongside this action by the French government, legislative work will be launched to reform the coherence between the heritage code and the criminal code, in order to protect national security and defense.

(Sara Squadrani)

The European Union is an "LGBTIQ Freedom Zone." In response to restrictive actions against the LGBTIQ population in some countries of the European Union, the European Parliament has declared the Union an "LGBTIQ Freedom Zone". In the approved resolution, the reference is to Poland and Hungary, where there have been incidents of discrimination and attacks in recent months, including by public authorities, media and elected officials. "LGBTIQ people in the European Union should everywhere enjoy the freedom to live and publicly display their sexual orientation and gender identity without fear of intolerance, discrimination or persecution," the MEPs comment. The position of the European Parliament wants to call every Member State to protect and promote equality and fundamental principles that are the rights of all.

(Federico Brignacca)

Nagorno-Karabakh, survivors of illegal detentions tell what happened. Last fall there was a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan concerning the area of Nagorno-Karabakh, where a majority of Armenian population resides. Azerbaijani forces took over the areas around and inside the region by force. The news of violence and illegal detentions perpetrated against civilians by Azerbaijani forces had already been reported by Human Rights Watch, but now with the account of some survivors, a new chapter opens on what happened during this conflict. Their stories report violence and repeated human rights violations against the detainees, despite the Fourth Geneva Convention provides for the protection of civilians in an international armed conflict, considering them "protected persons".

(Federico Brignacca)

Egypt, NGOs support UN declaration on human rights. Non-governmental organizations around the world - reports Human Rights Watch - have decided to express their support for the condemnation of the human rights situation in Egypt expressed by the member states of the United Nations in a joint statement. This statement highlights "restrictions on freedom of expression and the right to peaceful assembly" but also major limitations on political opposition and civil society, and appears to be a step forward after years of failure to take a clear and collective stance from the UN Human Rights Council. "Countries should continue to make it clear to the Egyptian government that it will no longer have carte blanche to arbitrarily imprison, torture or violate the right to life and unlawfully kill people," said Bahey Hassan, director of the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies.

(Federico Brignacca)

Federico Brignacca and Sara Squadrani

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

US, economy picking up. The increasingly evident signs of a return to normal economic conditions - at least for the United States - and the approval of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package have turbocharged the markets, and the Dow Jones has set a new all-time high. The labour market started to march towards full employment again, and this time the sectors most affected by the anti-covid restrictions showed signs of recovery (+ 355,000 jobs for hospitality and restaurants), but the whole US economy was running. The OECD has in effect nearly doubled its 2021 GDP growth estimates to +6.5%, and the US will be the only country to exceed pre-Covid levels in the fourth quarter of 2021, a feat that not even China is expected to achieve. However, this news has taken the momentum away from all those companies - mainly technological ones - that have marked record revenues by exploiting the pandemic. The consequence? Nasdaq in correction territory (-10.5% in 13 days), even if the Biden plan has brought back a certain optimism also for this list.

US stimulus, overspending? The $1.9 trillion aid plan was approved by Congress without substantial changes to the structure proposed by the Democrats, except for the removal of the increase in the minimum wage to $15/hr, judged excessive. The most obvious point is the new round of $1.400 checks sent to each individual with an income below $80.000, that is 280 million Americans, for a total expenditure of about $400 billion. Another $360 billion will be sent to state governments but, Republicans criticize, also to those states that have, for various reasons, seen their revenues increase in 2020. $246 billion is earmarked for unemployment benefits ($300/week) in addition to local and state benefits, $176 billion for the school system, and $55 billion for covid testing and vaccines. Many economists, however, consider the expenditure excessive and a harbinger of inflationary phenomena, especially in view of the progress - not only economic - made by the country in recent months.

America, beware of debt. The warning comes from the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan congressional bureau. The CBO found that in the first 5 months of fiscal year 2021 (which began in October), the federal deficit exceeded $1 trillion, over $420 billion more than in the same period in 2020, driven by a 25% increase in spending (most due to the covid response, but excluding the latest $1.9 trillion stimulus) and only partially offset by the +5% increase in revenues. The CBO has warned that the deficit will fall only slightly by the end of the emergency, hitting a low of 5.7% in 2031, and that if the current path continues by 2051 the deficit will rise to 13.3%, with the national debt rising from 102% in 2021 to 202%. The main spending items are Social Security and Medicare, and since cutting these expenses is politically challenging, president Biden will have no choice but to raise taxes, as he has already promised to do, in part by raising the corporate tax burden from 21% to 28%.

Atlantic relations, the calm returns. In two separate announcements, the Biden administration announced that it had reached an agreement with the UK and EU to suspend some of the tariffs imposed by the previous administration in connection with the Boeing-Airbus dispute. This follows the unilateral move initiated by Boris Johnson in January, when he suspended part of the duties in the hope of easing relations with the new president. This increases the chances of a peaceful resolution of the dispute and, at the same time, improves the prospects for exporters on both sides of the Atlantic, especially for the two aerospace giants, already heavily affected by the pandemic. However, this suspension of duties is only temporary and does not affect other relevant products such as steel and aluminum, which will remain taxed, as will whiskey and Harley-Davidson.

China, mixed news. The Asian country is among those that have fared best in the pandemic, but this does not mean that its immediate (and more distant) future is rosy. In fact, the Communist Party preaches caution and forecasts a GDP growth of 6% or more, below analysts' expectations that see a +8% as more likely, and will slightly reduce the deficit/GDP ratio to 3.2% to avoid speculative bubbles and excessive debt. This has resulted in very bad days for Chinese stock exchanges, with the CSI 300 index, for example, down 14% in just three weeks, a slump that has required a stabilizing intervention by some state-controlled funds. To make matters worse, the birth rate has dropped by 15% in 2020, a figure that confirms the trend of a slowing population growth that began in 2005 and that already in 2021 or 2022 should translate into a decrease in the workforce, which would make it very difficult to catch up with the United States as the world's leading economy.

UK, higher taxes. The Chancellor of the Exchequer (or Finance Minister) Rishi Sunak has presented the financial plan that the British government intends to implement in the coming years, and what stands out are two figures: 100 and 25. The first one refers to the billions that the government will allocate to support the economy in the exit phase from the pandemic emergency; the second one is the level of taxation (%) applied to the largest companies from 2023, up 6% precisely to support all the Covid-related expenses occurred in the last year. It is certainly a historic move, given that the last increase in corporate taxation was in 1974 and interrupts a downward trend that began with Margaret Thatcher. It is expected that the overall tax burden will reach 34-35% of GDP by 2025, the highest level since the late 1960s.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Sudan, progress on the vaccine front. The country received the first doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine - over 800,000 out of a planned 3.4 million - in the first week of March through the COVAX programme. The second tranche of vaccines will not arrive until the second quarter of 2021. Meanwhile, Sudan is preparing to vaccinate all health workers in public and private hospitals as quickly as possible. In total, the Sudanese authorities have requested 17 million doses to be sent, so as to be able to vaccinate 20% of the population.

Ethiopia, resignation of the senior diplomat at the Embassy in Washington. Berhane Kidanemariam, deputy head of mission of the Ethiopian representation in the United States, resigned on March 10 as a sign of protest "against the genocidal war in Tigray and against all the repression and destruction that the government is inflicting on the rest of Ethiopia". B. Kidanemariam criticized the current Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, who is leading the country on a "road of destruction and disintegration". The diplomat's action can be seen as a pressure on the current government, so to change direction in the conflict of the Tigray.

Sara Squadrani

NORTH AMERICA

United States, back to normal by 4 July. US President Biden has declared that, on 4 July, the “day of independence from the virus”, the United States will be able to return to normal. The vaccination campaign is proceeding apace and the final approval of the American Rescue Act is very important in order to support the economy with a $1900 billion aid package. Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, said she believes Biden's plan will have an impact on future economic forecasts.

(Marta Annalisa Savino)

Universal Basic Income in Canada? The idea of guaranteeing a universal basic income to citizens is gaining ground in many circles and the Liberal Party is no exception. The supporters are a transversal group within the party and this prevents a polarization. On several occasions the government commissions, and not only, have emphasized the benefits for the welfare system that this measure would entail. Prime Minister Trudeau was not very enthusiastic on the subject, but he never closed definitively, even when in November some of his deputies brought the matter to the chamber. This will be one of the hottest topics in view of the party convention on 9 and 10 April, because it is linked to the problem of subsidies needed to support people affected by Covid.

(Lorenzo Bonaguro)

Marta Annalisa Savino and Lorenzo Bonaguro

LATIN AMERICA

Argentina, protests in the province of Formosa. A demonstration took place on 5 March in Formosa, a province located in north-western Argentina, in which citizens, mostly traders, protested against the restrictive measures adopted by the local governor Gildo Insfrán to contain Covid-19. It seems that the peaceful demonstration was violently repressed by the police. The Minister of Security, Sabina Andrea Frederic, said that the demonstration was an attempt to provoke and discredit the provincial government. These facts prompted the Human Rights Watch to open an investigation into both the way in which the measures to contain the pandemic were imposed and into alleged violations of the freedom of expression of the independent media.

Bolivia, local elections. On 7 March local elections took place in Bolivia. The result could be decisive for the stability of Luis Arce's central government. The population was called upon to elect nine governors for the nine provinces, 336 mayors for their respective municipalities and their regional councillors and municipal councillors. Again, the OAS played the role of observer, a fact not accepted by the MAS, given also the criticism that the party had addressed to the organisation for the 2019 election results. From the first data derived from the quick count, which does not however correspond to the official results that will be published in the weeks to follow, it appears that the centre-right opposition is ahead of the MAS, the party of the current president.

Brazil, a surge of infections and new forms of land grabbing. In the last weeks, Brazil reached a new record in terms of deaths and Covid-19 positive cases. On 7 March alone, 1054 deaths caused by the virus were recorded. While the WHO warned the country of the serious situation, on 4 March Bolsonaro again declared his opposition to the lockdown measures. While Covid continues to decimate the indigenous population in the Amazon, land grabbing continues undisturbed in new forms. As reported by BBC News Brasil, Brazil's Federal Supreme Court has opened an investigation into the sale of Amazon protected areas on Facebook Marketplace. Facebook has said it is willing to cooperate with the local authorities but not to take action against this type of ad independently.

Chile, protests go on. On 6 March, Chileans protested against the current government and clamoured for the release of demonstrators arrested by the police in previous clashes. This time, protesters set fire to the statue of General Baquedano in Piazza Italia, an action harshly criticised by the government as an act of vandalism. The army claimed it was a real terrorist act and that the perpetrators were ignorant and anti-Chilean because they did not know the country's history. Clashes between civilians and Carabineros led to the arrest of more than 60 protesters. Meanwhile, some political parties and associations have called for the dismantling of the Carabineros because of their involvement in the killing of civilians.

Venezuela, tensions rise with the EU. In response to the sanctions that some members of Maduro's government received from the European Union, Venezuela expelled the EU ambassador present in the country, Isabel Brilhante Pedrosa. Guaidó's opposition expressed solidarity with the ambassador. Before leaving Caracas, the ambassador thanked the Venezuelan people for their warm welcome. Brilhante Pedrosa left the country on 4 March. The deportation order had already been given on 24 February, but due to various problems, it was only recently executed. In response, the EU declared the Venezuelan ambassador to Europe, Claudia Salerno, persona non grata.

Ginevra Ricca

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

China, the vaccination passport and the new electoral law for Hong Kong. The Foreign Minister has announced that China will be the first country to launch the use of the vaccine passport ‘to promote the recovery of the world economy'. However, the document is not yet mandatory, and so far, it will not lead to a reduction in travel restrictions from the country. This week, the Chinese parliament ratified an electoral law for Hong Kong that provides for the examination of all candidates by an electoral committee, controlled by Beijing. This law will make it increasingly difficult to elect pro-democratic candidates in Hong Kong.

(Margherita Camurri)

India, PM Modi and Sri Lankan President discuss cooperation in multilateral forums. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had a telephonic conversation on March 13 during which they reviewed topical developments as well as ongoing cooperation between both the countries in bilateral and multilateral forums. According to a statement from the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), the two leaders agreed to maintain regular contact between the relevant officials, also in the context of the ongoing challenges from Covid-19. In addition, they reviewed current developments and ongoing cooperation between the two countries in bilateral and multilateral forums. During the call, Prime Minister Modi reiterated the importance of Sri Lanka to India's Neighbourhood First policy.

(Andrea Angelo Coldani)

Japan, 'Quad' leaders pledge to counter China with billion-dose vaccine pact. On March 12, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, U.S. President Joe Biden, Australian leader Scott Morrison and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to work to expand Covid-19 vaccine production for developing countries. Amid China's growing influence, they are pursuing cooperation towards a rules-based maritime order in disputed waters. To address vaccine supply shortages across Southeast Asia and elsewhere, the four countries said they are committed to delivering up to 1 billion doses by the end of 2022 through financing vehicles that allow a substantial increase in production capacity in India. The move is seen as a counter to the ‘vaccine diplomacy’ of China, which has been offering free shots to developing countries.

(Andrea Angelo Coldani)

Taiwan, new tensions with Beijing: no to pineapple imports. In the first days of March, the Chinese government banned the import of pineapples from Taiwan apparently with the aim of protecting agri-food security. However, according to Taipei, Beijing’s move is political in nature and aims to further increase pressure on the island. In fact, tensions between the two countries continue to be high. In particular, last week, during a press conference, the Chinese Foreign Minister stressed several times that Taiwan is an 'inalienable' part of China and that the two territories should be unified.

(Margherita Camurri)

South Korea, the SMA strengthens its alliance with the United States and the two countries' common defense plan. South Korea and the United States have finally reached agreement on the measures contained in the SMA. The two countries aim to share military costs for U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. While Trump in the former administration demanded the ally to pay more than 400 per cent to secure the presence of the troops in SK, Biden opted for a more balanced approach. This strategy of sharing costs falls within the larger plan set out by the Biden administration to strengthen the existing alliances reaffirming the necessity of regulated alliances and of formality and transparency in intercountry relationships.

(Lydia Milly Certa)

North Korea, Biden administration tried to contact the country's government unsuccessfully. Officials report on the U.S. administration's continued attempts to reach North Korea through multiple channels to re-establish dialogue with the country, after more than a year of silence. The main reason is to prevent an escalation of the threat posed by NK to the United States, to the international community in general and also to North Korea's neighbours. In the meantime, the USA has been conducting some diplomatic activities with Japan and South Korea, the other two major players in the region.

(Lydia Milly Certa)

Lydia Milly Certa, Margherita Camurri and Andrea Angelo Coldani

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

European Union, Orbán leaves the EPP. It has been a week of intense movement between the political groups in the European Parliament. The Hungarian Prime Minister's Fidesz Party has decided to leave the European People's Party group after months of clashes with popular forces in other member states. The decision, therefore, was not unexpected. Meanwhile, Matteo Salvini has made it known that he has no intention of joining the EPP, but prefers to form a new group with Hungarian and Polish right-wing forces, disappointing those who hoped for a full pro-European turn by the Lega. The M5S has not been idle either and, in recent weeks, there have been contacts about a possible entry into the Social Democratic group (S&D). These movements risk changing the balance of the European Parliament.

Finland, Chinese investments rejected. The Finnish state broadcaster, YLE Lappi, has revealed that Helsinki government has blocked Chinese investment aimed at expanding the airport in Kemijärvi, Lapland, in order to conduct research and observations in the Arctic. In recent years, the northernmost part of Europe has been becoming an arena for competition between the great powers, and the Scandinavian states are in the middle of this game. The official reasons given by the Finnish government for blocking these investments are the presence of a military base near the town in question and the recent European directive restricting foreign investments in certain fields or areas.

European Union, immunity lifted for Catalan leaders. The European Parliament has lifted the immunity of three Catalan leaders, including Carles Puigdemont, by some 400 votes to 250. Spain's foreign minister welcomed the MEPs' decision, saying it reaffirmed Madrid's sovereignty. On the other hand, Catalan leaders, who have been trying for years to internationalise the crisis in Catalonia and take it beyond the simple state borders, were negative. Spain will now be able to submit a new extradition request for the three MEPs under indictment.

European Union, the vaccination campaign is slow. While the United Kingdom and the United States are making rapid progress with mass vaccination, the Old Continent is lagging behind, risking having to prolong the coronavirus emergency with all the problems it entails. Mario Draghi was the first prime minister to block 250,000 doses of vaccine bound for Australia, in line with the export regulation approved in January 2021 and extended until the end of June, but the European Commission's approach remained weak. The issue of vaccines has now entered the geopolitical sphere in every respect: the EU, in fact, fears triggering a protectionist spiral that could lead to a worsening of relations with the UK and the US, after the initial phase of excitement over a newfound transatlantic bond.

Leonardo Cherici

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

CoviVac: it is the third Russian vaccine against Covid-19. Made by the Chumakov Federal Scientific Center for Research and Development of Immunobiology Drugs of St. Petersburg; the first 120,000 doses, in mid-March, will be distributed among the civilian population. CoviVac which thus joins the EpiVacCorona - of the Vektor center - and the more famous Sputnik. The target, within this first half of the year, is the total production of 88 million “sets of doses”. Premier Mikhail Mishutsin announced it with enthusiasm, who immediately claimed that the first 120,000 doses will be distributed by mid-March 2020. This is wonderful news not only for Russia, but also for all the other states that continue in the search for new drugs capable of guaranteeing ever higher yields in the Coronavirus vaccination campaign. Another important step that adds to the other vaccines already in circulation around the world.

(Arianna Giannino)

Sputnik V: tensions in Russia. Russia does not want to impose Sputnik V on anyone, there is no "diplomatic-propaganda operation" underway, if anything the desire to share a vaccine deemed effective because here it is a question of "the life and health of citizens" and "the fighting the pandemic requires convergence and joining forces ". Ambassador of the Russian Federation Sergey Razov, in an exclusive interview with ANSA, speaks after the controversy following the announcement of the forthcoming production of Sputnik in Lombardy by the Italian-Swiss company Adienne Pharma & Biotech.

(Arianna Giannino)

The Baltic republics against nuclear power. In recent years, the three Baltic republics Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have tried to attract the attention of the European community to the Astravyets nuclear power plant, built in Belarus a few tens of kilometers from the border with Lithuania and the capital Vilnius itself. It is no coincidence that this is the nation most hostile to Lukashenko and which hosts the political refugee Tikhanovskaya. Mindful of the Russian inefficiency in nuclear management, the three governments have repeatedly tried to boycott the construction of the plant and the Belarusian energy sector. The relevant ministries have already begun to coordinate a common political line to try to cut Minsk off the Baltic energy grid. This week a delegation from the European Commission came to Vilnius to try to create a broader common front.

(Lorenzo Bonaguro)

The Chinese vaccine in the Balkans. The ‘‘vaccine war’’ arrives in Serbia and China marks an important victory. President Vucic has announced the creation of a plant capable of producing the vaccine made in China thanks to an international cooperation that also involves the United Arab Emirates. The quantities produced should be sufficient for the needs of Serbia and the entire region. If successful, it would be a major diplomatic triumph for Belgrade and China. The loser in this vaccine race would be the European Union. In fact, in recent months the Balkan states have protested a lot against the distribution established in Brussels, which is judged to be inefficient. The Balkans remain a thorny issue for the EU: there are many unknowns about regional stability in the near future. Meanwhile, the other competitor, Russia, wasted no time and the Sputnik vaccine is also being used extensively. Bruxelles risks losing the ‘‘war’’.

(Lorenzo Bonaguro)

Arianna Giannino and Lorenzo Bonaguro

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Tunisia: Vaccination campaign with Sputnik V gets under way. The Russian serum has finally started to circulate in Tunisian hospitals as of Saturday, 13 March, with a first delivery of 30,000 doses reserved primarily for health personnel and security forces. The background to this important step forward, however, remains a near-disastrous economic and political situation, with economic estimates predicting the country's borrowing requirement at $7.2 billion, at least $5 billion of which is foreign. With a people disillusioned with a democracy that is exposing its weaknesses, the issue of the government reshuffle is now paramount, with the candidature of several potential new ministers rejected by President Saied on the grounds of "conflict of interest". Ennahda - like many other political actors - wants to emphasise the pre-eminence of political stability over the adoption of urgent economic reforms, over and above chair changes. Meanwhile, a big name in Tunisian public opinion - as well as on the political scene - Nabil Karoui, has left on bail the prison where he had been held since December 2020 on charges of tax evasion and money laundering.

(Federica Sulpizio)

Egypt, tragedy in a textile factory. Twenty people died in a terrible fire that broke out in a textile factory on the outskirts of Cairo, while as many were seriously injured. Unfortunately, stories of fires with undefined causes in Egyptian factories are sadly the order of the day: the fault of the incorrect application of safety measures for industrial equipment. In the meantime, with regard to its external relations, al-Sisi's Egypt welcomes the first diplomatic contact with Turkey since 2013. Indeed, relations with Ankara had deteriorated following General al-Sisi's rise to power in 2013, through what Turkey called a "military coup" against Morsi. This is a timid step forward, which acquires some relevance when compared to the line of conduct adopted by the two countries in recent years: since 2013 they had respectively expelled their ambassadors and repeatedly clashed on a number of regional issues. On the other hand al-Sisi, in a phone call with Libyan Prime Minister Dbeibeh, said that Egypt is ready to implement development projects on the ground to help the Libyan people.

(Federica Sulpizio)

Turkey, the other side of assertiveness. If in recent times Turkey's activism has been above all blatant with muscular rhetoric and practices, Ankara now seems to try to capitalize on the dividends by proposing itself as a mediator in different scenarios. Certainly, what is crucial in this sense is the need to find a position with respect to the new US administration. For instance, this has led to the idea, both in Turkish and Washington circles, of choosing Istanbul as the epicenter for new peace talks on the Afghanistan issue, where Turkey seems to enjoy the trust of both sides in the negotiations. In the meantime, however, the consolidated axis with Qatar and the marriage of interest with Russia have conducted a meeting in Doha about the Syrian conundrum, which signaled the intentions of the parties to avoid a strengthening of relations between the Kurds and the U.S.. All signs that the Anatolian country will probably continue to exploit reticence and instability as well as to juggle between one front and another to advance its own interests, as demonstrated by the nuclear cooperation with Moscow and a new economic agreement with Tripoli.

(Samuele Abrami)

Iraq, open competition, again. In a theater that remains torn by sectarianism, territorial divisions and factionalism in the management of power, Turkey’s military operation Eagle Claw II has further destabilized the situation because, if theoretically confined to hitting the positions of the Kurdish PKK militias in Sinjar, other influential actors in the area fear that Ankara’s interests may advance towards Mosul and the Iraqi heartland. Among them, Iran, although sometimes cooperating with Turkey against the common Kurdish threat, qualms that a Turkish increased influence could undermine its pragmatically accommodating posture towards the PKK, thus reducing Iranian room for maneuver. In fact, in the area of Iraqi Kurdistan, Tehran has long maintained strong ties both with the PUK party and with the Azerbaijani and pro-Shiite militias (including the PMU), which allow a privileged way to move its proxies throughout the Middle East quadrant. Finally, the central government in Baghdad and the central government in Erbil are facing the same dilemma: Iranian-Shiite presence or Ottoman dreams of Misak-ı Milli?

(Samuele Abrami)

Libya, a new step towards transition: the new government has finally received the confidence of the House of Representatives, which met for the occasion in Sirte. Due to some disagreements between the factions, a number of personalities appointed to certain ministries and key positions have been replaced. The government will be composed of 35 ministerial figures and the Prime Minister himself will retain the leadership of the Ministry of Defence on an interim basis. This new step has been greeted with confidence by all the international players involved in the country's affairs, including UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Among other statements, the newly elected Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Dbeiba says that the agreement on the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) with Turkey, illegal according to UNCLOS, is in Libya's national interest.

(Michele Magistretti)

Israel, one step away from the end of the emergency: the country is now, with good reason, the spearhead and envy of the world in managing the health crisis. Israel has exceeded 4 million vaccinated with both doses and exceeded 5 with the first. In addition, the Israeli Defence Forces is the first army in the world to have achieved herd immunity, having about 85% of its members vaccinated or cured. The success of the vaccination campaign has allowed the reopening of bars, restaurants and various events. Meanwhile, Netanyahu had to cancel his historic visit to the Emirates due to his wife's hospitalization and the outbreak of a diplomatic crisis with Jordan, Amman blamed the Israeli government for wanting to change access to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, whose custody is entrusted to the ruling family.

(Michele Magistretti)

Federica Sulpizio, Samuele Abrami and Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Italy, Algerian citizen arrested: direct links to the Bataclan massacre. Athmane Touami, a 36-year-old Algerian resident in Bari, is accused of participating in a terrorist organisation. According to the investigations of the DDA of the capital of Puglia, conducted in synergy with Europol, the man would have had a key role in providing logistical support - false documents and places of support - to members of the jihadist commando that on the evening of 15 November 2015 turned Paris into a war zone, causing 130 victims.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Spain, 17th "European Day of Remembrance" in memory of the victims of terrorism. On Thursday 11 March, the 17th event - organised by the European Commission - was held in Madrid to remember all victims of terrorism in Europe. In 2004, the Spanish capital was the scene of one of the most violent attacks ever carried out on European territory: 192 people died and more than 2000 were injured. It is no coincidence that the Commission, in such a critical year for Europe, has chosen the city that most symbolises this day. The EU's executive body wanted to emphasise its ongoing commitment to the fight against terrorism and its activities in support of the victims: last August, for the first time, the Commission's work on the 'five-year strategy' included a chapter dedicated to the protection of the victims of terrorism.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Syria-Iraq, ISIS continues to represent a threat to civilians. Operational cells and affiliated groups are still present in several areas of the two countries, which continue to worry the various forces controlling the areas. In Iraq, an attack by gunmen who broke into a civilian home, killing 8 people in the town of Al-Bodor, near the city of Tikrit, has been reportedly claimed by ISIS. The Baghdad government and allied coalition forces, having reached the site on March 13 to shed light on the events, are inclined to attribute the attack to ISIS. On the other side of the border, in the village of Jadid Ekedat near Deir Ezzor, a statement distributed by the terrorist organization lists the names of 27 residents, publicly threatened for their support to the Assad regime or the SDF. Meanwhile, the rivalries of international actors continue to make the area unstable, with Iran and Russia competing for control over energy resources.

(Laura Morreale)

US, ISIS Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo placed on the list of terrorist organizations. It was announced on March 10 by the U.S. State Department, adding that the two groups will be referred to as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs), as well as being considered ‘Specially Designated Global Terrorist’ (SDGTs). The new provision will be applied at both the organizations as a whole and their respective leaders, Abu Yasir Hassan and Seka Musa Baluku. As the statement explains, these two labels produce concrete effects: a ban on propaganda or support, a freeze on property and financial assets linked to the terrorist organizations which fall under U.S. jurisdiction, and a ban on U.S. citizens from transacting on their behalf.

(Laura Morreale)

Afghanistan, a car bomb explodes in Herat. On Friday 12 March, a car bomb explosion near a police station left at least seven people dead and more than fifty injured in the western province of Herat. A member of the security forces was killed in the attack and all other victims were civilians. Although no one claimed responsibility for the attack, the local authorities blamed the Taliban militia. A few hours after the attack, the UN Security Council condemned the alarming increase in attacks against civilians in Afghanistan, particularly against civil servants, judges, the media, health and humanitarian workers, human rights defenders and ethnic and religious minorities.

(Vincenzo Battaglia)

Davide Shahhosseini, Laura Morreale and Vincenzo Battaglia

INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

UN, High-level Dialogue on Energy. The High-Level Dialogue on Energy 2021 was virtually opened on 10 March with greetings from Secretary General Guterres. The deliberations of five technical working groups will follow, with the aim of devising a global roadmap for obtaining clean and accessible energy for all (SDG 7) by 2030 and zero net emissions by 2050. The central themes will be: access to energy, just and inclusive energy transition, implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), innovation, technology and data. Throughout 2021, the UN will conduct a series of summits and conferences, including the Global Conference on Sustainable Transport, the Food Systems Summit and the COP of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Glasgow, which will provide important opportunities to enable the SDGs and the Paris climate agreement.

(Sara Squadrani)

Council of Europe and Tunisia, collaborating for women’s rights. On March 8, the Council of Europe announced the publication of a toolkit to protect the rights of women victims of violence. Its title is "I am not alone ..." and it represents the implementation of the Tunisian organic law n.58/2017 of 11 August 2017 on the elimination of violence against women. The Tunisian Ministry of Women, Family, Children and Seniors has obtained the support of the Council of Europe. The booklet, written in clear and simple language - for now only in Arabic, informs women of their rights and presents the facilities and services they can access.

(Sara Squadrani)

Council of Europe denounces European migration policies for violating human rights. A report presented by Human Rights Commissioner Dunja Mijatović incites European countries to review their migration policies, which in recent years have resulted in a “backsliding in the protection of the lives and rights of refugees and migrants”. The document, which complements a Recommendation previously released in 2019, produces additional recommendations related to several shortcomings of current policies identified by the Commissioner, including inadequate monitoring systems in the Mediterranean, criminalization of NGOs, cooperation with entities that commit systematic human rights violations, and the absence of legal routes to reach Europe.

(Laura Morreale)

WHO: investigations underway on AstraZeneca vaccine, but it is important to continue vaccination. After several countries have suspended the administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to the occurrence of blood clots in some patients, the WHO stated that it is carefully studying the case and will make known as soon as possible any change on the current recommendations. At the moment, continuing mass immunization remains therefore the priority: there is no certainty of a causal link between the vaccine and the development of the clots. According to some experts, both internal and external to the organization, the number of episodes of clots seems to be in line with the average incidence of clots in the population: the fact that they occurred in people who had already received the vaccine does not make the causal link automatic. The benefits of continuing vaccination are deemed to be greater than the risks. According to what is known, out of about 5 million people who have received the vaccine in Europe, 30 have experienced an episode of blood clot.

(Laura Morreale)

ILO Governing Body, 341st session starting this week. The first session of 2021 for the historic organization is due to take place from March 15-27, with members and observers participating in virtual mode. In the session’s agenda, a discussion on the impact of Covid-19 on the labour market will be included, as well as an assessment of the situation of workers around the world in relation to the Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work, issued by the organization in 2019. The international labour standards established by the ILO in 2017 and their implementation by member states will also be evaluated. Some panels will also be devoted to critical issues, such as those of Venezuela, Myanmar and Bangladesh, on which the ILO had expressed its views through resolutions in recent years.

(Laura Morreale)

Laura Morreale and Sara Squadrani

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Fiorani: Western Europe and European Union

Andrea Angelo Coldani: Asia and the Far East

Arianna Giannino: Central and Eastern Europe and Russian Federation

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security, Latin America

Federica Sulpizio: Middle East and North Africa

Federico Brignacca: Human Rights

Ginevra Ricca: Latin America

Laura Morreale: Terrorism and International Security and International Organisations

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economy and International Finance

Leonardo Cherici: Western Europe and the European Union

Lorenzo Bonaguro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russian Federation, North America

Lydia Milly Certa: Asia and the Far East

Margherita Camurri: Asia and the Far East

Marta Annalisa Savino: North America

Michele Magistretti: Middle East and North Africa

Samuele Abrami: Middle East and North Africa

Sara Squadrani: Human Rights and International Organizations

Vincenzo Battaglia: Terrorism and International Security

Translated by: Alessandra Fiorani, Andrea Angelo Coldani, Arianna Giannino, Chiara Scuderi, Davide Shahhosseini, Federica Sulpizio, Federico Brignacca, Ginevra Ricca, Laura Morreale, Leonardo Aldeghi, Leonardo Chierici, Lorenzo Bonaguro, Lydia Milly Certa, Margherita Camurri, Marta Annalisa Savino, Martina Pignatelli, Michele Magistretti, Sara Squadrani, Samuele Abrami, Valeria Scuderi, Vincenzo Battaglia.