Framing The World

The main news from the world

  Articoli (Articles)
  Redazione
  24 October 2022
  20 minutes, 1 second

Framing The World, XCIV Edition

In the new issue of FtW we deal with the new European plan to face the energy crisis. We also delve into the situation on the ground between Russia and Ukraine. Finally, we describe the Italian demonstrations against the renewal of the Italy-Libya memorandum of understanding.

All this and much more in the 94th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY



HUMAN RIGHTS

Egypt, Amnesty denounces inhuman conditions in Badr 3 prison. The Badr 3 prison, inaugurated in late 2021, was supposed to signify an improvement to Egypt’s human rights record. Instead, the prisoners, many of them dissidents and political opponents, have been forced for months to live in freezing cold cells, with fluorescent lights switched on round the clock; and with insufficient food, clothing and hygiene products. In addition, family visits are forbidden and contact with lawyers is prevented. Concerns about detention conditions and access to medical care increased after the death of El-Sayed al-Sayfi on 5 October. Amnesty also denounced the attitude of Egypt's PR machine which, in the run-up to COP27 in Egypt next November, is trying at all costs to hide the terrible reality in the country's prisons.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Haiti, the cholera epidemic spreads rapidly. Since the first recorded case of cholera on 2 October 2022, the epidemic has spread very rapidly. In fact, on the 16th of October, according to the Haitian Ministry of Health, there were 835 suspected cases, 78 confirmed cases and 36 deaths. About ¼ of the suspected cases are children who, according to Médecins Sans Frontières, are the most vulnerable to the disease and at risk of death if not treated immediately. In addition, among those at high risk of contagion prisoners have to be included. In June, Haiti's prisons were heavily overcrowded and, according to the United Nations, 83% of prisoners live in inhuman conditions. Overall, such a rapid transmission of cholera among the Haitian population is certainly due to an inadequate access to clean water and precarious sanitation facilities (according to the WHO, in 2020 more than 1/3 of the population had no access to drinking water).

(Alice Stillone)

Protests over the Italy-Libya Memorandum: on Wednesday the 26th of October, a press conference organized by 40 Organizations and aimed at asking Italy and Europe not to renew the agreements with Libya is scheduled to take place in Rome. In fact, if the Italian government doesn’t decide by the 2nd of November to revoke it, the Memorandum will be automatically renewed for another 3 years. This agreement, which has now been in place for 5 years, had dramatic consequences on the living conditions of women, men and children due to the violence, exploitation, arbitrary detention and torture they suffer in Libyan lagers. From 2017 around 100,000 people have been intercepted at sea by the Libyan Coast Guard and forcibly returned to Libya, a country which, for the above-mentioned reasons, can certainly not be considered 'safe'.

(Alice Stillone)

Lorenzo Franceschetti and Alice Stillone



ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

IMF, slowing growth. The International Monetary Fund's forecast update is far from reassuring. While the IMF confirmed its global growth estimates for 2022 at 3.2%, it also noted how the world economy is experiencing a widespread and faster-than-expected slowdown caused by inflation, tightening financial conditions, the war in Ukraine, and China's covid restrictions. For 2023, the estimate is now +2.7% from +2.9% in July, but with a 25% probability that it could fall below 2%, and is the third lowest forecast since 2001, behind 2008 and 2020. IMF Chief economist Gourinchas added that for many, 2023 will feel like a recession and that the global economy is headed for "stormy waters" where financial turmoil may occur and push investors into safe-haven assets such as U.S. treasuries.

SNAP, yet another tumble. Just as they did three months ago, Snap's shares plummeted after the release of negative quarterly results, closing the day at -28% (-83% since the beginning of the year). Despite growth in active users (+19%) and revenues (+6%, below forecasts), losses increased 400% to $360 million, which included costs from the restructuring plan that cut 20% of its workforce and the elimination of several products under development. Snap also zeroed out growth estimates for the current quarter and lamented both advertisers cutting budgets and the changes implemented by Apple to reduce user tracking. Snap's negative results do not bode well for other social media such as Facebook and Twitter, which immediately dropped 4 % before recovering slightly.

Inflation, beyond forecast. The latest data confirm how the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is still far from bearing the results it expects. In September consumer prices rose 0.4 % over the previous month (expected +0.3%, +0.1% in August) and 8.2% year-on-year (in August it was 8.3%), driven by increases in food, housing and medical costs, while the "core" index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.6% as in August and 6.6% year-on-year. Producer prices also showed no significant progress, having increased by 0.4%, following the -0.2% in August, and by 8.5% year-on-year, down slightly from the +8.7% in August, and 0.4% also for the "core," the highest since May. However, the stock market, which tumbled more than 2.5 % on the news, recovered almost immediately and closed the day with gains just as high.

Wall Street, the optimism reigns. Despite concerns about inflation and interest rates, and negative surprises such as Tesla's disappointing results (-7 % after the announcement, -46% since the beginning of the year), the S&P500 and Dow Jones close the best week since June and the Nasdaq since July, with all indexes up more than 4.5%. Optimism, which briefly disappeared after the release of inflation data, returned to drive the markets thanks to yet another drop in weekly unemployment claims (from 226,000 to 214,000) and signs, from the quarterly reports of banks and airlines (especially JPMorgan Chase and Delta Air Lines), that once again underscore the health of the U.S. economy, especially in terms of consumer spending.

Leonardo Aldeghi



SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Uganda, 2 districts in lockdown following the epidemic. Three weeks of lockdown have been announced for two districts of Uganda due to the spread of the Ebola epidemic that began in early September in Mubende, about 80 km from the capital, Kampala. This is an important decision by President Yoweri Museveni, who had previously stated that it would not be necessary to take restrictive measures given the nature of the virus. According to data from the WHO, 60 Ebola cases have been confirmed, with 20 likely to be verified and 44 people dead. The danger of the spread of Ebola in Uganda is the Sudanese variant, against which existing vaccines and therapies would not work.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Burkina Faso, Ibrahim Traoré takes oath, appointed interim president. Captain Ibrahim Traoré, leader of the coup in the African country on 30 September, took the oath of office dressed in military clothing, stating that Burkina Faso "is going through a crisis of internal security and an unprecedented humanitarian crisis." The new leader also promised to regain the territories taken by Islamic movements. During the official inauguration, contained in the transitional charter adopted a week ago that article four states that the mandate of the transitional president "ends with the investiture of the president following the presidential elections," Traoré has sworn to "respect and defend the constitution, the transition charter and the laws of Burkina Faso.”

(Giulio Ciofini)

Nigeria, signed a memorandum for a new gas pipeline. Nigeria signed in Nouakchott, the capital of Mauritania, a memorandum of understanding on the new Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP). The memorandum, including the signatures of Mauritania, Morocco, and Nigeria, was signed along with a second document, this time signed by Morocco, Nigeria, and Senegal. These confirm "the commitment of the parties to this strategic route, with gas supplies provided after its completion to all West African countries, and a new alternative export route to Europe will be opened," the parties said in a note released after the signing of the document. The future pipeline will cross the West African coast from Nigeria to Morocco, passing through Senegal and Mauritania in particular. It will be connected to the Maghreb-Europe gas line and then to the European gas network. Last May, Nigerian authorities confirmed plans to cooperate with Morocco to build the world's longest undersea gas pipeline with a length of 5,660 km.

(Andrea Ghilardi)

Andrea Ghilardi and Giulio Ciofini



NORTH AMERICA

Fed: High inflation slows the economy. For the Fed, due to inflation, the American economy will experience modest growth. "Prices continue to rise and remain high while economic activity expands modestly": this is the comment of the Federal Reserve in the Beige Book, the report on the state of the economy that will be the basis for the next monetary policy decisions of the meeting of 1 and 2 November.

Assault on Capitol Hill, Bannon convicted of contempt of Congress. Steve Bannon, Donald Trump's former campaign leader and his White House strategist, was sentenced by a Washington federal court to four months and a $ 6,500 fine for contempt of Congress for refusing to testify and provide documents in Washington. investigation into the assault on Capitol Hill. According to prosecutors, since he received the subpoena, Bannon "has pursued a bad faith strategy of defiance and contempt."

Life in prison for the perpetrator of the Parkland massacre. Life imprisonment: this is the verdict of the jury for Nikolas Cruz, the young man accused of the shooting in 2018 in the school in Parkland, Florida, in which 17 people died, including 14 students and three teachers. It is one of the bloodiest school shootings in US history. The unanimity of the 12 jurors was required for the death penalty, also on the prevalence of aggravating circumstances over extenuating circumstances. Now the last word is up to Judge Elizabeth Scherer, but judges generally respect the jury's decision.



Federico Pani

LATIN AMERICA

Puerto Rico, several people are without electricity after the Fiona Hurricane. Several people are still without electricity or water in the Caribbean Island of Puerto Rico, after that the island was hit by the Fiona Hurricane. Fiona, at the beginning was classified into category 1 but later its power became strong. The Hurricane hit Puerto Rico after 5 years of the passage of Maria and Irma which devastated the island. On these days 3 million people are without water or electricity and no one has an idea of when they should come back. This hurricane season has been terrible also in the other neighboring islands, like Cuba, who is facing protests by its citizens, who are requiring a better management of hurricane season to the Cuban government.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Colombia opens the dialogue with the last rebel group present in the country. The Colombian government and the biggest rebel group of the country, the National Liberation Army, announced that they decided to reestablish peace talks for the first time since 2018. The Peace talks should begin in the first week of November, as established in Caracas, and it’s interesting to note that other countries like Venezuela, Cuba and Norway, will watch the peace process. ELN (Ejercito de Liberacion nacional) was founded in 1960 by a group of students, catholic priests and leaders who were inspired by the Cuban revolution and after the peace agreement between FARC and the Colombian Government has remained the most important rebel group in the country.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Francesco Andrea Rossi



ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

China, doubts about growth. China’s National Bureau of Statistics has indefinitely postponed the release of quarterly GDP data, amid speculation of worse-than-expected results or a desire to avoid diverting attention from the ongoing Communist Party Congress. The Financial Times also reports that over the past 10 years the statistics bureau has eliminated more than half of the more than 80,000 data series published until 2012, potentially to prevent indirect, independent measurements of the Chinese economy, such as those made by Martinez, an economist at the University of Chicago, who in 2019 estimated that China’s annual GDP growth was 35% lower than reported. The Chinese economy, caught between covid crackdowns and the real estate crisis, is expected to grow between 2.7% and 3.3%, about half the government target of 5.5%.

(Leonardo Aldeghi)

India, Pulitzer prize-winning journalist prevented from flying to the USA. On 17 October, Sanna Irshad Mattoo was stopped by immigration officials at New Delhi International Airport without any reason. The Kashmiri photojournalist was on her way to the USA to collect the Pulitzer Prize she won, together with three other colleagues from the Reuters news agency, for the report on life in the Kashmir region during the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. In July, she was prevented from leaving for Paris, again without receiving any explanation. However, Sanna Irshad Mattoo's is not an isolated case. Since 2019, after removing the special status of Kashmir, the Hindu nationalist government has intensified its repression against journalists and activists from this region and restricted the democratic rights of the local population.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Leonardo Aldeghi and Lorenzo Franceschetti



WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

European Union, a new plan to tackle the energy crisis has been presented. The European Commission has just presented a plan containing measures to tackle the energy crisis. For months, EU countries have been trying to find solutions to counter rising gas costs and tackle the energy crisis that began with the war in Ukraine. In order to limit the difficulties encountered so far in reaching common measures, the Commission has removed the most controversial elements and thus hopes to obtain an approval of the plan by the European Council. Some of the measures proposed by the plan: common gas purchases and new gas pricing procedures. Meanwhile, Germany has announced that its last three nuclear power plants will remain open until 15 April 2023.

UK, Hunt cancels almost all tax cuts. The new Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt (appointed to replace Kwasi Kwarteng on 14 October) has announced in recent days that he is abandoning the economic programme wanted by the new premier Liz Truss. On the 23rd of September, Liz Truss had launched a mini-manoeuvre comprising several tax cuts, including the basic tax rate on minor incomes from 20 to 19 per cent. Hunt explained that stability is now the goal for the country and that it is not right to borrow to finance tax cuts at such a delicate time for the sustainability of finances. PM Truss apologized for the mistakes and seemed determined to remain in office despite several attacks; however, she resigned on the 20th of October, a day after the resignation of Interior Minister Suella Braverman.

European Parliament, Frontex 2020 budget discharge rejected. MEPs refused to approve the 2020 budgets of Frontex, the European Coast and Border Guard Agency, which works at the borders in cooperation with the various national authorities. 284 MEPs were in favor, 284 against and 8 abstained; most of the votes against came from the left-wing political groups and the centrists of Renew Europe. MEPs criticized the various irregularities that were identified, the illegal rejections that were covered up and the fact that Frontex very often failed to protect the fundamental rights of migrants and asylum seekers.

Bianca Franzini

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Bosnia and Herzegovina, becomes a potential EU member state. Bosnia and Herzegovina officially became a potential member state of the European Union, in a not favorable context for the country itself due to the ethnic tensions within the Serbian community and for the fact that Russia could still have a sort of influence in the political life of the country. Bosnia and Herzegovina asked to become an EU candidate state back in 2016 and initially it was recognized as a potential candidate member while yesterday the EU Commission agreed to officially confirm to remove the potential status. The country has to go through several challenges in order to become a full member country of the EU, included the ethnic tensions within the orthodox Serbian, the catholic Croats and the Muslim bosniaks.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Moldova, Russia violates its airspace. The Moldavian republic affirmed that a Russian missile violated its airspace while putting on danger the infrastructures and the civilian people on its territory, according to the Moldavian ministry of foreign affairs, Nico Papescu. The government of Chisinau asked for explanations to the Russian Ambassador to Moldova and condemned not only the accident, but the continuing of the Russian invasion to Ukraine.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Serbia, new Balkan Route. The Balkan country of Serbia on these days is finding itself at the center of a new Balkan route, crossed by several people that are coming from extra EU countries that are trying to reach the European Union.This is explained by the fact that Serbia has a more friendly policy in order to request its visa for people coming to countries like Tunisia, India and Burundi, and this allowed several people to get to Serbia with European countries as a final destination. Various statistical polls confirmed this new trend.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Ukraine, protests in front of the Iranian Embassy in Kyiv following last Russian attacks. During the last weeks, Russian invasion has been strongly marked by the implementation of Shahed-136 Iranian drones. These drones, Iranian made, have been the target of the protests happened on the 17th of October against what seems to be an active complicity of Iran to the Russian invasion through the furniture of these technologies. Just during the 16th of October, the Ukrainian air defence has intercepted 5 of these drones having as objective different areas of the capital Kyiv. As a consequence of these numbers, the Ukrainian foreign ministry asked his colleagues of EU countries to impose sanctions on Iran accusing the country of being Russia’s ally.

(Rosario Giorgio Maria Saffioti)

​​Ukraine, air defence’s success as a reply to air attacks on Kyiv. On the 17th of October, following some intense air attacks to the capital Kyiv, residents found parts of what revealed to be the accelerator of a medium range missile, part of the air defence system IRIS-T. The donation of this particular air defence system by Germany was recently announced by the Ukrainian ministry of defence on the last 11th of October. Flagship of the German Diehl Defence, the IRIS-T system has been developed in two variants: medium and short range. The version utilized during the 17th of October is the medium range one, capable of intercepting flying targets within a radius of 40km.

(Rosario Giorgio Maria Saffioti)

Francesco Andrea Rossi and Rosario Giorgio Maria Saffioti

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Libya, storm on the horizon(?). Although the offensive on Tripoli by PM Fathi Bashaga failed, his ally, Khalifa Haftar, seems ready for a new offensive. In Sabha, capital city of the southern region of the country, the leader of the Cyrenaica army addressed inflammatory words to his rival during a parade. The fear of a new possible escalation is rising, as the different Libyan political factions have not yet found a modus vivendi and an agreement concerning the elections. In addition, the external sponsors of the various factions highly contribute to the internal divisions among factions. The government in Tripoli has Turkey as its main sponsor, while the Bashaga government is supported by Moscow, Cairo and Paris. Meanwhile, the UN mission seems unable to make a decisive impact on the fractured Libyan political landscape.

(Michele Magistretti)

Turkey, the energy that moves everything. After the Astana summit and a joint personal meeting with his Russian counterpart Putin, Turkish President Erdoğan announced that he is working to make Turkey a natural gas hub. This is because Turkey, a country scarcely dense in energy resources, it’s considered as a transcontinental geographic hub. However, given the historical contingencies, this doesn’t sounds lik a business proposal as usual, but as a loophole to geopolitically move as a "Trojan horse" within the Euro-Mediterranean area. In addition to being able to definitively scuttle the much-discussed Eastmed gas pipeline, this would definitively seal the possibility for Turkey both to disrupt the internal European order and to elevate itself as the true needle of the scales in the continent's various conflictual contingencies.

(Samuele Abrami)

Iran, the World Cup dimension of the protests. Last week, a group of activists, including several sportsmen and soccer players, wrote a letter to FIFA calling for the suspension of the Iranian Federation from the upcoming World Cup and, consequently, its exclusion from the event held in Qatar. This is because of the repression implemented by the Asian country against especially women's rights, clarifying how with Article 16 of the same statutes, FIFA is legally authorized to take drastic immediate measures against them. One passage mentions that "Iran's brutality and belligerence towards its own people has reached a critical point, calling for an unequivocal and firm disassociation from the world of soccer and sports. The situation of women in Iran is deeply unpleasant in the broader political and socioeconomic picture."

(Samuele Abrami)

Samuele Abrami and Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Afghanistan, WFP reports the most severe food crisis in the country's history. Data published by the WFP - the United Nations Food Program - show that 19.7 million people, nearly half of Afghanistan's population, are living in conditions of severe malnutrition in all 34 provinces of the country. Since early October, the UN has been providing, in response to the crisis, specific food for malnutrition prevention to 7,400 women and children. The causes of this crisis are many, starting from the economic crisis, dictated by the freezing of all international funds after the Taliban returned to power, to the war in Ukraine, where the latter was Kabul's main trading partner for grain exports.

Ukraine, Erdogan heralds extension of grain deal. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said there are no obstacles to reaching a new understanding-between Moscow and Kiev-regarding the extension of the agreement signed last July, which, after months of stalemate, had allowed the unblocking of grain exports from Ukrainian ports to global markets, particularly the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa. Securing the renewal of grain exports from the Black Sea is crucial in order to ensure food security for many countries. In fact, since the agreement came into force on August 1, nearly 8 million tons of wheat have left Ukrainian ports, contributing greatly to limiting the rising price of essential foodstuffs.

Davide Shahhosseini



Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Andrea Ghilardi: Western Europe and the European Union, Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Elisa Maggiore: Latin America

Federico Pani: North America

Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Laura Salvemini: Asia and the Far East

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Rosario Giorgio Maria Saffioti: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Samuele Abrami: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa, Terrorism and International Security



Share the post

L'Autore

Redazione

Categories

Tag

FtW